Intelligence Experts see Security Risks in Global Economic Downturn

On the front page of the Washington Post this morning (11/15/08) is an article titled, "Experts See Security Risks in Downturn: Global Financial Crisis May Fuel Instability and Weaken U.S. Defenses." The article warns that two forces are colliding with potential harmful effects to US security and global safety: (1) economic downturns in economies globally are causing increased economic hardship and political instability (in terms of food price inflation, rising unemployment), giving rise to vulnerability of insurrection and influence of extremist groups like Al-Qaeda, or new political alliances not in line or mind with US interests as those hit hardest in third world countries seek money (and by reference new political economic relationships) with those with funds, with China being the most likely financier. (2) the second trend they see is governments globally, but particularly in the US preparing to downsize their expenses in military, intelligence, and criminal justice due to budgetary concerns, or new Obama presidential administration interests, just at a time when crime and terrorism opportunity is rising.

Key highlights of the article by Joby Warrick, Washington Post Staff Writer Saturday, November 15, 2008; Page A01, include the following, " Intelligence officials are warning that the deepening global financial crisis could weaken fragile governments in the world's most dangerous areas and undermine the ability of the United States and its allies to respond to a new wave of security threats. U.S. government officials and private analysts say the economic turmoil has heightened the short-term risk of a terrorist attack, as radical groups probe for weakening border protections and new gaps in defenses. A protracted financial crisis could threaten the survival of friendly regimes from Pakistan to the Middle East while forcing Western nations to cut spending on defense, intelligence and foreign aid, the sources said. " Read the entire article at http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/11/14/AR2008111403864.html?hpid=topnews

The article author has focused their narrative on terrorism, but what is much more likely is insurrection, economic misery, and increased crime occurring in these locations that can create environments where terrorists can thrive with impunity. The world is into a deep global recession, and if unabated the history books will read the second coming of the Great Depression. In third world countries particularly, many people are hungry, unemployed, and feeling miserable and the World Bank has correctly assessed the risk.

Joby Warrick writes, "As bad as economic conditions are in the United States and Europe, where outright recessions are expected next year, they are worse in developing countries such as Pakistan, a state that was already struggling with violent insurgencies and widespread poverty. Some analysts warn that a prolonged economic crisis could trigger a period of widespread unrest that could strengthen the hand of extremists and threaten Pakistan's democratically elected government -- with potentially grave consequences for the region and perhaps the planet. Pakistanis were hit by soaring food and energy prices earlier in the year, and the country's financial problems have multiplied since late summer. Islamabad's currency reserves have nearly evaporated, forcing the new government to seek new foreign loans or risk defaulting on the country's debt. The national currency, the rupee, has been devalued, and inflation is squeezing Pakistan's poor and middle class alike. "

As the world leaders from the G-20 meet in Washington DC this weekend, it is becoming increasingly apparent that a deep freeze has hit the global economy, and one of the baneful consequences of the downturn is increased economic misery, crime opportunity, and terrorism threats. The world has changed, how much we do not yet know, but when the dust settles it will look like a different place.

To conclude this post, normally, at this time of year we in America prepare for Thanksgiving and thereafter a Christmas holiday season where children hope for gifts under the Christmas tree and candy in their stockings. This year however, I think I will opt for “coal” in my stocking as it looks to be a long cold winter.