Thursday, November 6, 2008

Economic misery worsens -- unemployment notices

It is becoming painfully obvious that the financial markets first, and then the general economy second, hit the airbrakes hard and fast in September / October 2008. The unemployment notices have been coming in greater frequency and in larger lots. CNBC reports that tomorrow "Markets are braced for more hemorrhaging of jobs, with a Friday employment report expected to record 200,00 more jobs vaporized in October. This would push the jobless rate up two—tenths of a point to 6.3 percent. "Job losses are now likely to run around 150k to 200k per month, with a few whopping declines now and then," Tony Crescenzi, chief bond market strategist for Miller Tabak & Co. LLC wrote in a research note Thursday. Friday's employment report will show job losses of at least 200,000, and could go as high as 250,000.

Where the Layoffs Are—Is Your Firm on the List?
http://www.cnbc.com/id/27575462
This is a good article that highlights the widespread impact of the current financial crises as it hits general employment in many sectors.

Businesses that provide non-core goods and services are seeing huge downturns in demand; advertising, architects/engineers, bankers, construction, consulting, energy , luxury goods, marketing, and other expensive capital goods providers have been most severely impacted. Local and state governments have also been impacted by diminished demand for tax free bond financings, impacting employment and services of governments. The situation is not pretty, and getting worse fast. Sectors such as hospitals, physicians, schools, and law enforcement seem less impacted, however spending for capital projects at these later sectors has diminished.

So ear has now turned to action by corporations in terms of suspended capital projects, and the unemployment notices, particularly massive reductions of 100+ or more and piling up. Personal consumption should further retract with fear of prolonged unemployment and difficult operating conditions. The law of inertia would portend that the downward spiral will continue until moved upon by some greater force -- hitting the bottom. Until that time, whenever it arrives, further tightening is predictable.

What to do, prepare your own personal economic survival plan, and one for your company and community. With capital tightening, having access to cash or equivalents is vital, and one should seek to secure 6-9 months of operating capital. It is unlikely that anything soon will come from the transitional government or the New Congress so it is likely that it will be springtime before we see any meaningful change to the downward trend.

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