Deepening recession brings with it concerns of coming crime wave

10/15/08. These are extraordinary times as we witness the collapse of the US stock markets, the demand destruction caused by lost confidence, fear, and credit tightening, and consequent belt tightening by individuals, businesses, and local governments that will have the unintended consequence of serving as a catalyst for a downward spiraling economy. Recession is assured, and Depression 2 is not unlikely.
So what to do? After you have moved to safeguard your financial resources and preserve capital, we would do well to consider the consequence of later dominoes to fall in the progression of this crises. Today governments speak of stabilizing banks, on a near and future day, the discussion will be about maintaining the rule of law. With history as our guide, we are likely to experience a spiking crime wave as the economic misery index worsens. Wise leaders should prepare for the coming crime of great proportions not seen on this planet in 100 years.
Now, this blog is not published to scare, but to forewarn, so that individuals, families, communities, businesses, governments, can protect themselves from the coming crime wave. There is a sage biblical verse that reads, 'if you are prepared, you shall not fear.' We are indeed experiencing a 100-year economic storm, and we are only at the beginning. With the stair-step-drops marking the collapse of financial markets, and deep recession upon us, we may soon enter a phase approximating the Great Depression. Marking semantic differences of recession and depression are frequently meaningless, and have a greater bearing to ones relative position to the proximate pain of the recession -- leading President Ronald Reagan to quip, "in a recession your neighbor is out of work, in a depression, you are out of work," as it becomes very personal. In the 1930s, a great crime wave ensued with the economic misery. We may well experience a resurgence of Great Depression level crime wave.
From the published "History of the FBI, The New Deal: 1933 - Late 1930's" we read that "The 1929 stock market crash and the Great Depression brought hard times to America. Hard times, in turn, created more criminals--and also led Americans to escape their troubles through newspapers, radio, and movies. To combat the crime wave, President Franklin D. Roosevelt influenced Congress in his first administration to expand federal jurisdiction, and his Attorney General, Homer Cummings, fought an unrelenting campaign against rampant crime. One case highlighting the rampant crime included the swindling and murder of members of the Osage Indian tribe in Oklahoma for the rights to their oil fields. Noting the widespread interest of the media in this war against crime, Hoover carried the message of FBI work through them to the American people." http://www.fbi.gov/libref/historic/history/newdeal.htm
The Home Office of the British Government released, or inadvertently released, a draft document in early September 2008 focusing on the potential crime wave that could ensue if the recession deepens to depression. From September 3, 2008, and the headline, "Credit crunch could lead to crime wave, Home Office warns Downing Street: The economic downturn is set to lead to more crime, fewer police, more illegal immigration and a rise in far right extremism, a leaked Home Office letter reveals. " The author writes -- "A blunt assessment of the pressures that a recession will bring on law and order is detailed in a document which is to be sent to Number 10 from Jacqui Smith, the Home Secretary. It outlines the potential rises in crime, including violent crime, that could occur because of the credit crisis. Overall crime is expected to rise as a result of the more difficult economic times, which could also fuel terrorism, it warns. The document also claims there will be an increase in "hostility" towards migrants as people question the financial assistance newcomers are given by the state." "Having studied previous recessions and downturns and its effect on crime and policing, the Home Office's modelling indicates that "an economic downturn would place significant upward pressure on acquisitive crime and therefore overall crime figures," according to the leaked letter. It points to the 1992 recession which saw sharp rises in violent crime of 19 per cent. "#http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/lawandorder/2657335/Credit-crunch-could-lead-to-crime-wave-Home-Office-warns-Downing-Street.html
With budgets tightening for local governments, the already low ratios of officers per population may become over stretched. In general terms, public safety officers per 1,000 population are far too small to be of any real impact during a crime wave that creates moral hazard for hungry, stressed, financially broke individuals that resort to base survival ignoring civil rules of good behavior, and acting civilly disobedient, or worse. With increased moral hazard, and weakening of commitment to obey the rule of law, crime waves can increase rapidly, and virally with contagion.
This blog will be used to track the progressing crime wave development, and forecast the tipping point with an aim of providing preparations and plans to safeguard individuals, families, communities, businesses, and governments.
Idea #001 -- Create a Crime Control strategy and plan to curb and combat the coming crime wave.
Just as Chairman Bernake has schooled himself on the economics of the Great Depression, and has moved rather dramatically to fund banks to forestall bank collapse. Our next US president should also seek to proactively preempt the rise and speed of the coming crime wave by reducing crime opportunity. A package of coordinated measures should be prepared much like the financial plan envisioned by the Federal Reserve.
Ideal #002 -- Create and fund a Crime Prevention Through Environmental Design (CPTED) and situational crime prevention educational initiative for cities and communities to help them prepare for the coming crime wave. This will serve both to create employment opportunities, but also to help communities and individuals protect themselves through the built environment, as there wont be sufficient police to respond to their specific needs do to potentially overwhelming calls for police assistance demand.
Develop and teach measures of CPTED to: increase surveillance, access control, territoriality, image and maintenance, and locational or place setting requirements for crime prevention.
Develop and teach Situational Crime Prevention techniques for specific places that:
(1) increase the risks for offenders committing crime
(2) increase the effort required for offenders to commit crime
(3) reduce the rewards for crime
(4) remove excuses for committing crimes, and introduce cultural inculcation, shaming, and other reinforcements to encourage support of the rule of law
Idea #003 -- Do more with less. Figure out what law enforcement is doing that is ineffective and stop doing it. First issue up -- consider decriminalizing Marijuana, as a means of reducing rewards for crime, and redistributing scarce law enforcement resources to greater crime problems
In terms of crime control, the era of Prohibition from 1920 to 1933 created great criminal opportunity for mobs and organized crime. In hindsight, it was necessary to decriminalize distribution of alcohol to remove the demand for bootleg liquor and deny criminal organizations of product sales and revenue.
In like kind, as the market collapse continues and the expected D2 Crime Wave develops, it is not unthinkable that criminal organizations involved in legitimate enterprise may look to resume some illegal operations to recapture revenue. Alcohol is legal and not a great threat. However, there may be a resurgence of illegal drug distribution at the street-level in the US in coming months and years. As radical as it may seem to me (as a long-term drug control policy advocate and former ONDCP employee), it may be advisable in the near future for the next President to decriminalize marijuana in the US, to reduce the market incentive of organized crime, and to reduce law enforcement resources required on marijuana eradication in order to re-direct the limited resources to cocaine, meth, and harder drugs that are known to be greater influences in terms of exacerbating criminal behavior. This obviously would have moral hazard, insurance, and liability impacts for marijuana use in the workplace, and potentially signal greater use by youth, but this could be controlled and managed similar to youth alcohol policy controls.
The greater issue however is to denying criminal market activity of the less baneful marijuana, and focusing attention on greater crime problems. Such radical policy thinking seems to me to be quite rational to combat the coming crime wave.
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This is the first post, and there will be others. I welcome the constructive thought, opinion, and contribution to this dialog that may serve as a benefit for individuals, families, communities, businesses, and governments seeking to create safe havens, and positive environments for living through the coming crime wave.