Crimewave - it starts gradually, then suddenly

There is a tipping point in criminological theory that suggests that orderly conditions can decay gradually, then suddenly if not abatted. A crime wave is in its earliest stages developing, first gradually, noticed here or there, and if conditions do not improve in employment and market confidence, may deteriorate further. Layoffs, unemployment, and lost opportunities hit the poor hardest as they frequently have less savings accumulated to weather financial crises.Articles in the news point to the return of mean streets. Consider this one published 10/19/08, titled, "Rockaways' 'Wild West': Housing project, 101st Precinct see crime wave,"http://www.nydailynews.com/ny_local/queens/2008/10/18/2008-10-18_rockaways_wild_west_housing_project_101s.html. "A sharp uptick in robberies and felony assaults at the 1,800-unit Ocean Bay Apartments in Far Rockaway is troubling residents and police. A recent spike in crime in the Rockaways is causing added misery for residents of a local housing complex already plagued by violence. There have been 10 homicides so far this year in the 101st Precinct, up from four during the same period last year, according to new NYPD statistics. Robberies and felony assaults are also up in the precinct, which patrols the Ocean Bay Apartments in Far Rockaway. Beleaguered residents of the nearly 1,800-unit housing project said the area is becoming like the Wild West, with gun violence on a regular basis."It's very difficult raising kids in a development where there's shooting every day," said one mother of four who was afraid to give her name. "I feel like giving up on this place. I'm ready to go. It's getting out of hand." Marq Claxton, a retired cop and cofounder of the group 100 Blacks in Law Enforcement Who Care, described the Ocean Bay Apartments as "a fishbowl of violence and apathy." "It's amazing that the front of the projects are at war with the back of the projects," Claxton said of the gang violence."# # #Warehousing the poor was never a good solution. Research has shown that congregating the poor and disadvantaged in large groups such as tower-based multi-family housing is a prescription for victimization of the poor; in downturned economic conditions, the victimization can become much worse. The point of my including the article in this blog is not to discuss public housing, but to highlight the dramatic spike in violent crime recently occuring -- up 66% increase in homicide in one year, this coming at a time when police and city budgets are in contraction. If unabated, the cancer of crime violence can be expected to slide down a hill into lawlessness not unlike the wild, wild west.