Research shows that crime waves occur within one-year of sharp economic contractions since 1954, and our current sharp contraction is sharper, deeper, and more dark than any on record in the post-war era. Therefore, it should come as some concern that with a crime wave building on the horizon, and some six months to go before crime is noticable and the public sees and feels a crime wave, that corporations are cutting costs now; this may be shortsighted.
If reductions in security force are from reductions in enterprise operation (closed stores and factories), then there is likely little negative consequence from the security manpower reductions after the vacant sites are secured. However, if the security force reductions are coming in the face of continued enterprise operations, then by definition more crime opportunity is created by this reduction in force if no other means are used to mitigate the reduction-in service.
Research tells us that crime occurs where there is:
(1) an absense of a capable guardian -- like a guard, security manager, other focused eyes,
(2) likely crime targets
(3) likely offenders -- increasing numbers of those fearful of being let go from their position, and those already unemployed, under-employed, and those unemployed and not looking for work are growing in mass.
(4) absense of intimate handling of known offenders and habitual offenders -- the guards know who they are, but without them, who is left to manage the known likely offenders?
A recent survey of Chief Security Officers (CSOs) from the largest corporations showed that 64% of CSOs indicated that the economy was negatively impacting their companies; 35% said they are reducing their departmental security budgets, and nearly 60% said that they either had already, or were nearing a position of having to implement a security department hiring freeze.
Joan Goodchild, Senior Editor, of CSO Online, wrote on 2/25/09, "Current economic conditions are having a negative impact on the majority of security budgets, according to a survey conducted by CSO. Many respondents indicated hiring freezes or staff reductions were necessary due to the financial crisis. Security budgets will decrease for 35 percent of respondents and remain the same for 42 percent. Just 23 percent thought spending would increase in the coming year. " Read the entire article at: http://www.csoonline.com/article/482186/CSO_Survey_Economy_Forces_Many_to_Slash_Freeze_Security_Staff?page=1
May I be wrong, and you be right, that there is no crime wave coming. The door to crime is being left open just at a time of increased crime opportunity. Don't fear, be prepared.
