Sharp economic crises are followed by crime waves typically within one year. US history shows that since 1954, a crime wave has followed each sharp economic recession. The magnitude of the projected crime wave associated with our current economic crises is dependent on many factors including the depth of the contraction, the breadth of industries hit, reduction in GDP, and the amount of unemployment created. Add to this misery cocktail that state and municipal governments are cutting back law enforcement just as the demand for services is projected to increase -- and "Houston, we have a problem."
Just when you thought that things could not get worse, our nations police chiefs report that they are facing budget cuts, so reports the Police Executive Research Forum (PERF).
From their press release, Chuck Wexler, Executive Director, Police Executive Research Forum wrote, "Nearly two out of three police agencies responding to a new survey said they are currently making plans for cutting their budgets, according to the Police Executive Research Forum (PERF), a Washington, D.C.-based independent research organization made up of local and state police officials. And 44 percent of the police departments report increases in certain types of crime which they believe can be attributed to the economic crisis."
The PERF Study found that 233 police agencies responded reflecting many large police departments, and "63 percent said they are preparing plans for an overall cut in their total funding for the next fiscal year. In a large majority of cases, the police officials indicated that they are not merely making contingency plans or thinking about cuts as an academic exercise; of those who said they are planning cuts, 88 percent said they have already been told to expect cuts by their mayor, city council, or other governing authority."
It is little wonder that gun sales have skyrocketed and shares of Smith and Wesson are on a tear this past week; or that there is an emerging trend of people moving away from the cities to the less populated areas at this time? With officer population ratios of approximately 5:1000, it is little wonder that people feel they will be on their own to preserve their own security. Recessions create more crime opportunity through higher numbers of likely offenders.
Beyond creating awareness and sadly fear, we need to frame solutions to get us out of our current condition and create a softer landing for us all. This and more is contained in a new book written by Severin Sorensen, CPP, titled, Economic Misery and Crime Waves: the future history of the second great depression and the crime wave that followed, and what to do about it (in publication, 4/09 release); the book will be available at Amazon.com, major bookstores, and this website.
For more information follow my blog at d2crimewave.blogspot.com. Let’s hope that I am wrong, and that this is just a deep recession and the consequence of the folly of a generation does not severely impact our children and our children’s children. Respectfully, Severin Sorensen, CPP President & CEO Sikyur.com Gaithersburg, MD
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Source of Illustration: Judy Trieble.
