Brits prepare to block and tackle recession crime wave

With the headline, "Gordon Brown set to get tough on burglary," pledged action to prevent the recession leading to a crime wave.  Crime waves have occurred within one-year of every sharp economic contraction since 1954, and the crime wave that occurred during the great depression was indeed most serious.  

Importantly, like the leaders of the World Bank and IMF, the UK Prime Minister admitted that economic downturns can lead to increases in burglaries and robberies. The Mirror reported Brown as saying, "We face the challenge of preventing what happened in previous recessions, where crimes like burglary and robbery went up," he is expected to tell a conference in London.  

Getting public awareness on crime prevention and attacking serious habitual offenders is important, along with a myriad of other strategies reported in a book to be released next week written by Severin L. Sorensen, CPP, titled, Economic Misery and Crime Waves: the second great depression and the coming crime wave, and what we can do about it.

What Prime Minister Brown is doing is necessary, but insufficient.  What is needed is not just awareness of the crime wave coming, and blocking and tackling specific offenders, but also a focused strategy to hack at the roots of crime, not just block crime opportunity.  Situational Crime Prevention will be an important aim in crime prevention, but so also will meaningful job creation in sustainable long-term (5-10 year) with investment related employment schemes such as national science policy goal initiatives -- the options are many running from increased productivity, infrastructure, energy efficiency, clean water, etc.  Focusing on the clean energy of Nuclear power would accomplish this goal while being kind to the earth, as a nuclear energy program provides jobs from engineers, planners, scientists, on down to road works, construction, and laborers.  Whereas road construction projects are more lumpy in terms of employing lower skilled workers, as opposed to a broad sweeping program of job support throughout the economy.

Bear Market Rally vs Crime Wave -- both are predictable

The IMF and World Bank economists are raising the wall of worry of an international crime wave caused by economic misery.  

Meanwhile, there are many prognosticators intent on cheerleading this economy to new heights -- telling us not to worry -- good times are right around the corner.   What people should understand is that the market upticks are based on "technical" indicators born of "animal spirits" of speculators and day traders taking advantage of the diverse news, and not the making of a sustainable rally.  We have yet to experience the full brunt of home foreclosures with many banks just now coming to the end of their suspensions of foreclosures in process.  Consumer debt continues to challenge households with unemployed unable to service their debts -- and many with jobs overlevered with debt.  We also have yet to experience the public view of the commercial real estate bubble burst that is exacerbated by the underlying value of the properties, loss of stable of rent-paying leasees, and competing market for captial property acquisition in the distressed assets -- all of these issues are serving to bring down commercial real estate.

Meanwhile individuals throughout the globe are facing increasingly fierce losses from crime.  The World Bank has sounded the alarm about global conditions for crime rising, including other stability issues beyond crime looking at potential regime changes.  At the street level, crime is increasing in pockets not unexpectedly at this time.  Consider the headline from ASIS International's Security Management Online -- 

"Business Still Booming for One Industry: Shoplifting"
Washington Times (05/11/09) P. A1 ; Harper, Jennifer

Statistics released by several organizations show that shoplifting is on the rise across the country. According to the Retail Industry Leaders Association, 61 percent of the nation's largest retailers and chain stores have seen increases in "opportunistic" shoplifting over the past four months. Another 75 percent of retailers said they had experienced a significant increase in "organized retail crime," or large-scale shoplifting. In addition, the RILA found that no retailers had experienced declines in shoplifting. Meanwhile, the Tennessee Bureau of Investigations has reported that shoplifting has risen by 30 percent in the state, while Michigan authorities say shoplifting is up 27 percent in the Great Lakes area. The increase in shoplifting is troublesome because thefts of merchandise and the subsequent sale of these items can be used to fund more serious crimes. According to the RILA, assassination attempts on federal prosecutors and police in Texas were funded by the thefts of more than $1 million in baby formula by gangs. The problem has caught the attention of lawmakers in Washington, including Sen. Richard J. Durbin (D-Ill.) Durbin recently introduced the Combating Organized Retail Crime Act of 2009, which aims to fight shoplifting. A number of states have also taken action by increasing funding for law enforcement and by making shoplifting a Class 4 felony instead of a misdemeanor.
(go to web site) 

There are signs (green shoots) that are indeed surfacing providing hope to many that a recovery is around the corner. These green shoots are being encouraged to grow by spotlighting and shouting encouragement by prognositicators that are cheerleading the bear market rally.  Yet the underlying fundamentals of the economy are not sound, unemployment continues to rise, though the pace of unemployment increases seems to be tappering around 500k jobs per month.  The continued decay of employment markets will adversely impact many individuals who can no longer service their debts.  You will know when the crime wave is recognized with the prognosticators use their pulpits to tell us all to obey laws, be civil to each other, use good protection plans for safeguarding families, homes, and businesses.  Crime prevention rallies have occured internationally and are starting to occur in small pockets within the US. 

There is a relationship between economic misery and crime and the more misery we experience, the more crime we should anticipate.  This is the premise of a new book currently at the printer that will be available soon.  For those with ears to hear, use this economic epoch of rising optimism to reposition your assets and move your ground.  We are in the middle of a 8-12 year event and the sunshine of springtime will fade in the heat of summer when either know risks, or unknown exogenous varibables may throw us back into a tailspin of worry as we retest the economic bottom experienced in the market.

Economic Misery increasing -- unemployment rising still

In March 2009,

US Unemployment (U-3)

 rose to 8.5 percent; 

the broader measure 

of Unemployment and 

underemployment 

(U-6) rose to 15.6%.

From the US Bureau of Labor 

a, "Regional and state unemployment 

rates were nearly all higher in 

March.  

# # #

Forty-six states recorded over-the-month unemployment rate

increases, North Dakota and the District of Columbia registered rate decreases, and 3 states had no change in their rate, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today.   Over the year, jobless rates were up in all 50 states and the  District of Columbia. The national unemployment rate rose from 8.1  percent in February to 8.5 percent in March, which was 3.4 percent- age points higher than in March 2008."

Meanwhile, in California -- the worlds 5th largest economy -- the headline reads, State unemployment rate highest since 1941 the San Francicso Chronicle reported 4/17/09 that "The state unemployment rate soared to 11.2 percent in March, the highest since before World War II, leaving a record 2.1 million Californians out of work, according to a report issued Friday.  Employment Development Department spokeswoman Patti Roberts said the March figure surpasses the 11 percent rate that occurred during the 1980s recession and brings California close to the jobless level of January 1941, when unemployment stood at about 11.7 percent. Roberts said unemployment is estimated to have been as high as 25 percent during the Great Depression. The highest reliable figure in state archives is the 14.7 percent rate in October 1940. The U.S. unemployment rate for March stood at 8.5 percent."

# # #

The Bureau of Labor Statistics Unemployment Data are as follows (for March 2009)

Table A.  States with unemployment rates significantly differ- ent from that of the U.S., March 2009, seasonally adjusted --------------------------------------------------------------                 State                |          Rate(p) -------------------------------------------------------------- United States (1) ...................|           8.5                                      | Arkansas ............................|           6.5 California ..........................|          11.2 Colorado ............................|           7.5 Connecticut .........................|           7.5 Delaware ............................|           7.7 District of Columbia ................|           9.8 Florida .............................|           9.7 Hawaii ..............................|           7.1 Idaho ...............................|           7.0 Indiana .............................|          10.0                                      | Iowa ................................|           5.2 Kansas ..............................|           6.1 Kentucky ............................|           9.8 Louisiana ...........................|           5.8 Maryland ............................|           6.9 Michigan ............................|          12.6 Montana .............................|           6.1 Nebraska ............................|           4.6 Nevada ..............................|          10.4 New Hampshire .......................|           6.2                                      | New Mexico ..........................|           5.9 New York ............................|           7.8 North Carolina ......................|          10.8 North Dakota ........................|           4.2 Ohio ................................|           9.7 Oklahoma ............................|           5.9 Oregon ..............................|          12.1 Pennsylvania ........................|           7.8 Rhode Island ........................|          10.5 South Carolina ......................|          11.4                                      | South Dakota ........................|           4.9 Tennessee ...........................|           9.6 Texas ...............................|           6.7 Utah ................................|           5.2 Vermont .............................|           7.2 Virginia ............................|           6.8 West Virginia .......................|           6.9 Wyoming .............................|           4.5 --------------------------------------------------------------    1 Data are not preliminary.    p = preliminary. 

The more important data remains with U-6 Unemployment as shown below. U-6 (Unemployment and under employment rate is now 15.6% through March 2009).

Data extracted on: April 18, 2009 (9:17:24 PM)
Labor Force Statistics from the Current Population Survey
Series Id:           LNS13327709
Seasonal Adjusted
Series title:        (seas) Total unemployed, plus all marginally attached workers plus total
                     employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of all civilian labor
                     force plus all marginally attached workers
Labor force status:  Aggregated totals unemployed
Type of data:        Percent
Age:                 16 years and over
Percent/rates:       Unemployed and mrg attached and pt for econ reas as percent of labor force plus
                     marg attached
Year
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Annual
1999
7.7
7.7
7.6
7.6
7.4
7.5
7.5
7.3
7.4
7.2
7.1
7.1
 
2000
7.1
7.2
7.1
6.9
7.1
7.0
7.0
7.1
7.0
6.8
7.1
6.9
 
2001
7.3
7.4
7.3
7.4
7.5
7.9
7.8
8.1
8.7
9.3
9.4
9.6
 
2002
9.5
9.5
9.4
9.7
9.5
9.5
9.6
9.6
9.6
9.6
9.7
9.8
 
2003
10.0
10.2
10.0
10.2
10.1
10.3
10.3
10.1
10.4
10.2
10.0
9.8
 
2004
9.9
9.7
10.0
9.6
9.6
9.5
9.5
9.4
9.4
9.7
9.4
9.2
 
2005
9.3
9.3
9.2
9.0
8.9
9.0
8.8
8.9
9.0
8.7
8.7
8.5
 
2006
8.4
8.5
8.2
8.1
8.2
8.4
8.5
8.4
8.0
8.2
8.0
7.9
 
2007
8.3
8.1
8.0
8.2
8.3
8.3
8.3
8.5
8.4
8.5
8.4
8.7
 
2008
9.0
9.0
9.1
9.2
9.8
10.1
10.4
10.9
11.2
12.0
12.6
13.5
 
2009
13.9
14.8
15.6