Economic Misery and Crime Waves

Criminals stealing copper power lines, garden ornaments, and memorial plaques.

2011-09-18T15:23:00.001-04:00

Criminals stealing copper power lines, garden ornaments, and memorial plaques.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2038764/Crimewave-UK-Gangs-steal-power-lines-garden-ornaments-memorial-plaques.htmlCriminals stealing copper power lines, garden ornaments, and memorial plaques.

Social Misery Rising - Riots and Crime Wave in the UK

2011-08-21T14:23:00.001-04:00

As reported in the "telegraph"

The full extent of the crimewave which affected London during this month’s riots has been revealed by the Metropolitan Police, with more than 3,000 individual crimes recorded over four days.

Scotland Yard disclosed there had been 3,296 offences linked to three nights of disturbances in the capital, including 162 arsons, 1,149 burglaries of homes and other premises.

Police received reports of 48 serious woundings, 32 common assaults, 412 robberies and 49 other violent crimes.

There were more than 1,100 burglaries of retail and commercial premises, and 48 reports of house-breaking.

Just under 70 homes were subjected to criminal damage, 400 vehicles were damaged and 10 were stolen.

There are also two investigations underway into the deaths of Richard Bowes, who was allegedly punched to the ground in Ealing, west London, and Trevor Ellis, who was shot dead in Croydon.

London riots, rural theft, and insurance co reported 20% increase in crime reports

2011-08-08T16:02:00.004-04:00

This newspaper report shows a rise in property crime claims of 20%. Interestingly, these are crimes of electronics and transferable goods, not theft of food or life support materials.

The Daily Telegraph printed, "Britain’s biggest rural insurer reports that a sharp increase in crime is also blighting the countryside.... NFU Mutual – formerly the National Farmers’ Union financial arm – says claims for theft jumped by nearly 20pc last year to a total of £50m. But this analysis of policyholders’ claims reveals something more interesting than an equality of misery between rural and urban lawlessness."

The NFU Mutual Rural Crime Survey also "reports that the most popular targets for rural thieves were not livestock or crops but chainsaws, electric drills and lawnmowers."

Law enforcement and manufacturers are fighting back copper theives with technology

2011-07-06T18:26:00.002-04:00

Copper thefts continue to be a major problem in some jurisdictions. While the copper wire stolen may be a minor part of a building infrastructure, HVAC, or roofing, the damaged caused in stealing the commodity can stretch many times the cost of loss. Manufacturers and law enforcement are fighting back with technology. Read the attached story in the Atlanta Journal-Constitution.

Crime wave watch -- small towns reducing police staff suffer crime increases

2011-07-06T18:14:00.003-04:00

While the crime report numbers are too small to suggest much about a trend, it is interesting to observe that a few small towns that greatly reduced or eliminated their law enforcement budgets are now suffering from being 'free-crime' zones, or so it seems. Read the article and make your own conclusions.

In UK, Crime falls for fourth year in a row; budget cuts will test limits of policing

2011-04-22T17:53:00.003-04:00

Crime continues to fall, surprising many, even this author, but most concerned are law enforcement agencies facing budget cuts. There is no dollar for dollar expense ratio that yields "X" level crime, so there should be no expectation that reductions in crime related spending will result in more crime; though there is an intuitive feel to the relationship. However, what the past few years have taught us is that there is that while pockets of crime around certain individuals increased, massive crime waves have not increased, excepting when accompanied with insurrection and overthrow of governments.

In Egypt, following outser of Mubarak, police withdraw, a crime wave develops

2011-03-13T11:18:00.005-04:00

From the Los Angeles Times, "Since the revolution toppled Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak last month, many of the police who became targets of the protesters' anger have failed to return to the streets, resulting in a crime wave that tears at the public's faith in the new government."

"Although precise numbers are unobtainable, government officials widely acknowledge that robberies, carjackings, sexual assaults and other crimes have been on the rise. The police absence is noted on street corners throughout the city."

"One officer, 28-year-old Ashraf Abdel Aal, said: "We will retake control slowly. So many people escaped from prison, and they have weapons and are more than willing to attack us."

Read the full article at: http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-fg-egypt-police-20110313,0,798037.story

Crime Wave Continues in Puerto Rico -- Homicide up!

2011-02-22T15:23:00.004-05:00

Look no further than Puerto Rico to see a Crime Wave, homicide in 2011 is 28% higher than last year, reflecting 40 homicides more this year than in 2010 for the same period;

From the Latin American Herald Tribune;

SAN JUAN – The crime wave that is besetting Puerto Rico continued on the weekend with a triple murder in the Vega Baja district, bringing to 179 the number of murders so far in 2011, a figure that is 40 more than had been registered by the same date last year.

Police reported Monday that on Sunday three people were machine-gunned in the northern coastal town near a grocery store in the residential neighborhood of Brisas de Tortuguero.

The police report says that early on Sunday morning a man who arrived with two accomplices in an SUV opened fire on a group of people who were at the shop.

The victims may have been killed in a settling of scores linked to drug trafficking, the police said.

UK Trains delayed as theives steal copper wires from junction boxes

2010-09-29T13:20:00.002-04:00

Here is an example of how theft of one item -- in this case copper, actually results in theft of time, and increase in safety risk. Consider the following story from the UK;

Copper thieves delay trains

RECORD numbers of UK trains are being delayed due to thieves stealing copper wires from junction boxes. The crimewave has seen 11,000 trains delayed over the last 12 month and around one million passengers made late as a consequence.

Network Rail first highlighted this problem in England’s north four years ago as a result of rising copper prices, and a taskforce was set up to address the worrying trend. Industry bosses estimate that £35m worth of copper wire has been stripped from railway lines since 2006, with £20m-worth stolen every year by 2014 if current rates continue to rise.

The problem of copper theft is particularly bad in England’s northeast which reports around 40 incidents every day. The raids became less profitable in late 2008 because of falling copper price around the world, but a recent rise has seen a resurgence of the trend to their worse levels ever.

Gangs are causing 500,000 minutes of otherwise avoidable delays every year by removing swaths of the rail network and ripping out cables attacked to trackside signals. Once rail signals lose current their lights revert to auxiliary power, immediately switching to red until engineers can arrive to fix the problem.

The Network Rail taskforce also includes train the British Transport Police (BTP) and railway operators, and focuses of securing tougher sentencing for thieves and rogue scrap dealers who act as middlemen that ‘fence’ the stolen material on.

Internet Crime Hits Record High in First Half in Japan; up 31.5%.

2010-09-04T22:54:00.000-04:00

Internet Crime Hits Record High in First Half in Japan; up 31.5%. Police responded to a record 2,444 Internet crime cases nationwide in the first half of this year, a National Police Agency survey showed Thursday. The number, up 31.5% from a year earlier, represented a new high since the NPA started gathering statistics for Internet crimes, defined as crimes which use a computer network, on a half-yearly basis in 2004. (Source: Kyodo)

Romania prepares for crime wave with exodus

2010-09-04T22:51:00.002-04:00

MORE than 8000 Roma have been sent back to Romania and Bulgaria from France under President Nicolas Sarkozy's crackdown - but many plan to return to the West to escape unemployment and a life without even the most basic amenities.

The Romanian countryside has little to offer those who, like Florin Chel, 24, and his family, were rounded up from a caravan site near Montpellier last week and offered E300 ($423) to make a "voluntary return" to Europe's poorest country.

Mr Sarkozy's policy has attracted criticism from the UN and some in his government for branding an entire community as criminal, despite none of those returning in recent months being convicted of a crime, according to Romanian authorities.

Mr Chel, whose shiny Dolce & Gabbana shoes seem out of place on the potholed road that leads to his family's simple concrete house, said he and his wife were told their two children would be taken into care if they did not sign an agreement to leave.

Stolen Copper Salavge Market Booming in Economic Downturn

2010-08-16T14:59:00.003-04:00

From the West Virginia Gazette comes this story. But truly, this story could have been written from almost any jurisdiction with rural highways in the US.

"For several years, Southern West Virginia has suffered an upsurge of metal-stealing. Thieves strip utility poles, power stations, vacant mines, shutdown plants, etc. -- mostly to get valuable copper to resell to scrap dealers."

"Trying to steal power lines can be deadly. Just this year, four West Virginians have been electrocuted during alleged thefts. The robberies sometimes knock out electrical or telephone service for neighborhoods."

"Even the 400-pound Fernbank School bell was stolen from a South Hills memorial and broken up for scrap."

"Frontier Communications, which purchased Verizon's telephone network, says the Mountain State has a horrible rate of copper wire theft. Nowhere else "even comes close to what is happening in West Virginia," security chief Lynne Monaco said."

This seems like a simple problem to resolve -- yet it remains a problem. There is no market if there is no buyer. Greater control of buyer market access could control this problem; remove cash from transactions, and require an electronic trail for starters.

46 US States in Budget Deficits; forbodes more headwind to economic recovery

2010-08-05T14:58:00.004-04:00

Recession Continues to Batter State Budgets; State Responses Could Slow Recovery
By Elizabeth McNichol, Phil Oliffand Nicholas Johnson
The worst recession since the 1930s has caused the steepest decline in state tax receipts on record. As a result, even after making very deep spending cuts over the last two years, states continue to face large budget gaps. At least 46 states struggled to close shortfalls when adopting budgets for the current fiscal year (FY 2011, which began July 1 in most states). These came on top of the large shortfalls that 48 states faced in fiscal years 2009 and 2010. States will continue to struggle to find the revenue needed to support critical public services for a number of years, threatening hundreds of thousands of jobs. States face:
Budget problems in 2011. Fiscal year 2011 gaps — addressed with spending cuts and revenue increases by most states — totaled $121 billion, or 19 percent of budgets in 46 states.[1] This total is likely to grow over the course of the fiscal year, which started July 1 in most states. It may well exceed $140 billion and would be higher still without federal assistance. The fact that the gaps have been filled and budgets are balanced does not end the story. Families hit hard by the recession will experience the loss of vital services throughout the year, and the negative impact on the economy will continue.
Uncertainty for the future. States’ fiscal problems will continue in the current fiscal year and likely beyond. Already 39 states have projected gaps that total $102 billion for the following year (fiscal year 2012). Once all states have prepared estimates these are likely to grow to some $120 billion.
The effects of gaps in 2010 budgets. These new shortfalls are in addition to the gaps states closed in their fiscal year 2010 budgets. Counting both initial and mid-year shortfalls, 48 states addressed such shortfalls in their budgets for fiscal year 2010, totaling $192 billion or 29 percent of state budgets — the largest gaps on record.
Declining federal assistance. Federal aid to states provided in the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act has lessened state cuts in services and tax increases. But the aid is now mostly gone; only about $40 billion remains to help with 2011 fiscal problems. The federal government could avert deep additional budget cuts that would further harm the economy by extending assistance over the period during which state fiscal distress is expected to continue rather than cutting it off before states have recovered.
Combined gaps of $260 billion for 2011 and 2012. These numbers suggest that states are dealing with total budget shortfalls of some $260 billion for 2011 and 2012. When all is said and done, states will have closed shortfalls of more than $500 billion since the start of the recession.

Robotics foretasted to be accomplices of criminals of the future

2010-07-27T23:43:00.002-04:00

In an article appearing in IEEE, a futurist speaks about how robots are likely to be used increasingly in crimes and terrorism.

Drug runners are already using robotic submarines to ferry illegal drugs to the USA. For example, in the photo shown, the US Coast Guard seizes $196 million of cocaine from robot submarine

crasch.livejournal.com

With accurate GPS locating devices, dead drops and stash locations are increasingly making law enforcement more difficult. Here is an article addressing the topic by a scientist familiar with the current state of technology.

"Robots will increasingly be used in crime and terrorism, with criminals hacking or copying police and military machines." So claim University of Sheffield computer scientist Professor Noel Sharkey, Interpol advisor Marc Goodman, and former Crimewatch presenter Nick Ross in an article called 'The Coming Robot Crime Wave' in the August edition of the IEEE magazine Computer.

"The growing availability of robotics knowledge and components will promote a new breed of garden shed robot criminals and terrorists," said the University. "Building robots is 80% cheaper now than 20 years ago and experts are calling for manufacturers to 'think thief' and plan against crime when they are designing machines."

Colombian drugs cartels, according to Sharkey, are already using robot submarines to deliver cocaine."Robots could assist a vast range of crime from drugs vending to murder, voyeurism and burglary. Robots can't even be detected by the passive IR alarm systems in most of our houses," he said. "More pressing though, is the danger that criminals or terrorists will hack into armed military or police robots and pose a threat to life.

Although the predicted crime might be 10 or 20 years away, Sharkey, Goodman and Ross urge scientists and engineers to be mindful of future crime prevention now, for example: building in software components that could assist forensic analysis.

Mexican drug cartel infighting rivals 1930s gangland mob turf battles

2010-07-18T15:44:00.004-04:00

In the 1930s, owing to markets made available through Prohibition creating an illegal alcohol market, North American gangs waged regional gangland turf battles involving murder, extortion, kidnapings, robberies, arson... This continued through a period of consolidation until the battlefield was turned from a battle between rivals, to a unified battle against government and law enforcement authority. The local police were corrupted by the system and it took outsiders from the national government, indeed outsiders from the traditional law enforcement scene to identify, target, and round up the "public enemies." Such was the scene during the first Great Depression.

Fast forward to today, when economic markets decline, those that have relied on their illegal drug market revenue search for new ways to keep revenues maintained; hence encroaching turf wars. The market itself has far more to do with issues impacting these rival gangs than any credit due law enforcement or government action. But just as the gang lords in the 1930s figured out that it was more prosperous to work together than fight each other, it should be expected that the criminal elements in Mexico will unite ultimately redirecting their deadly aim at authorities that seek to take them down. There appears to be a sea change in Mexican battleground -- a deliberate effort to go after law enforcement and authorities -- particularly with the first car bomb incident this past week in bordertown Mexico.

What was particularly noticeable in the Cuidad Juarez bombing incident was that the focus on the bomb was first responders, law enforcement, and investigators. Reportedly, the bombers called in a phony report that an officer was shot (and down), and this brought the calvary response, but when support arrived the bomb went off killing 3 people. This distraction bombing, or sometimes called secondary device bombing, is typical of terrorism type bombings and marks the milestone of increasing escalation in the Mexican border violence.

The violence is so extreme at the border that many have become numb to the violence and somehow excuse the violence as being related to some discomforting, disquieting, activities involving others and not related to themselves; this is false. The violence at the border is real, the consequences of fear palpable, and lasting peace and economic development of the border cannot occur until the violence stops and the rule of law established.

Travelers are advised to stay clear of the Mexican border and to be cautious on their business travel to the area.

CNBC Special Report - Counterfeit Goods Underworld

2010-07-14T18:02:00.004-04:00

7/14/2010, tonight, CNBC airs what is sure to be a significant report on the underworld of "counterfeit goods" markets. Counterfeit goods are a peril to the safety of the public and firms alike. Counterfeit drugs kill. Counterfeit autoparts can kill. Counterfeit goods can kill reputations of firms costing millions (and perhaps billions).

CNBC reports, "Fake handbags, watches, shoes and perfumes. The business of Counterfeit Goods is the largest underground industry in the world. Hundreds of billions of dollars are generated while sapping the economy, putting lives in jeopardy, and funding organized crime in the process.

CNBC’s "Crime Inc.: Counterfeit Goods," takes viewers on a rare look inside a global crime spree, where the goods are produced and confiscated in a world of high-risk and high-reward.

Host Carl Quintanilla takes you on raids with the LAPD anti-counterfeiting unit, inspections at ports, and back-room factories where counterfeits are produced. Meet a company whose whole brand was copied, and the story of a defense contractor who counterfeit defense parts that found their way into weapons depots in Iraq.

At around 7% of all global trade, Counterfeit Goods are a big business with low overhead. It makes too much money to go away any time soon.

Crime wave alert - Boston sees sharp spike in crimes in tourist areas

2010-07-14T11:35:00.002-04:00

Crime is up in Boston's tony tourist districts where visitors and shop keepers are being targeted by local criminals and gangs.

The Boston Herald Reports that "Tourist hot spots such as Newbury Street, the North End and the Navy Yard, home of Old Ironsides, which attract out-of-towners by the droves, also are drawing vicious thieves and mayhem-minded thugs in a crime wave that has alarmed merchants and visitors fearing for their safety."

“It’s a war zone. There’s a battle here every day,” said Karl Volker, 54, owner of Super Socks in Downtown Crossing, who blames roving bands of teens for the nearly 20 percent spike in larcenies in the area.

“The little monsters ruin your day every day. It creates a bad culture and there’s no consequences for these kids who travel in packs,” Volker said.

As the tourist season hits its peak, a Herald review found:

16 incidents of violent crime in the Faneuil Hall/Quincy Market area during the first half of this year, up from 14 the same period last year; and six car thefts this year, compared with just one over the same period in 2009;
31 reports of violent crime, including aggravated assault, in the Newbury Street shopping district, up from 19 over the same period last year; and 19 robberies, up from 11 in the first half of 2009;
56 incidents of violent crime in the storied North End, up from 46 over the same period last year; 18 stolen vehicles, up from 12 over the first six months of 2009; and 11 robberies so far this year, compared to six last year;
36 reports of property crime in the Navy Yard area, up from 27 last year; eight vehicle thefts, compared with one last year; and an overall crime increase of 34 percent;

Boston Police Commissioner Edward Davis, who said crime citywide is down 4 percent this year, said his commanders are strategizing on ways to tamp down the upsurge in tourist spots.

“We are working very hard in areas that we have seen spikes in crime. These are warning signs that we need to redouble our efforts in those areas, and that’s what’s happening on Newbury Street,” Davis said. “We know there are spikes in crime, but it’s not indicative of the overall health of the city.”

Read the whole article at: http://www.bostonherald.com/news/regional/view.bg?articleid=1267807&srvc=rss

Crime wave alert -- Scotland Yard Reports Broken Britain is in grip of £40bn organised crime...

2010-07-14T01:45:00.002-04:00

Targeting Serious Habitual Offenders (or SHOs) is an important part of tackling the crime wave, as was related in Severin Sorensen's book on Economic Misery and Crime Waves (2009).

The Daily Mail (UK) reports that Britain is in the grip of a £40billion organised crimewave led by 6,000 gangs, so reported the head of Scotland Yard warned last night.

Sir Paul Stephenson spelt out the enormous economic cost to the country of large scale drugs supply, people smuggling, fraud and mass marketing scams as he called for a new approach to tackling the problem.

Sir Paul said forces are targeting in an 'operationally meaningful way' just 11% of the estimated 6,000 organised crime groups.

He called for the creation of a nationally coordinated federated structure for tackling organised crime, either from within the police service or as part of an extended remit for the Serious Organised Crime Agency.

A global double dip is unavoidable

2010-07-13T17:11:00.002-04:00

For those who read my book, Economic Misery and Crime Waves (2009), you will be familiar with the commentary of the guest blog contributor that follows next -- Mark J. Lundeen. Mark has provided some clever work that examines statistically, historically, and causally the reasons for our current economic downturn, and he posits that the moves of central bankers and governments to create stimulus and pump up the economy have only forestalled an inevitable market correcting and clearing economic crash. I felt his article today was worth reposting in its entirety.

# # #

Guest Blog Contribution by Mark J. Lundeen,

13 July 2010

A global double dip is unavoidable. The problem is that we have massive global debt weighing down the world’s economies that are woefully incapable of servicing the burdens of debt placed on them.

Debt by itself is not necessarily bad, if used properly debt has many benefits. Debt financed the industry and commerce that lifted western civilization out of the dark ages. But debt has a dark side too. What it built, it can destroy.

So what distinguished creative debt, from destructive debt? Simple, all debt finances economic activity of some nature. If in the creation of debt, economic activity is stimulated that pays off the debt, as it produces a profit for the lender and borrower; that is good debt. Valuable goods and services are produced, jobs are created, and taxes are paid, all thanks to debt.

But this is not what happened in the past 40 years. Credit standards have been relaxed, resulting in massive debt in government, commerce, and individuals, who were encouraged, by practitioners of quack economic theory, to take on debt to finance economic activity that could never pay off the debt. So now we find ourselves in our current situation. And what is our current situation? On a global basis, we have come to a point where our assets have transformed themselves into oppressive liabilities.

If you correctly understand our problem, you’ll understand that it’s not a question of whether or not we will see a global double dip. But rather how long, and how much pain the world must endure before we start discussing how best to go about the liquidation of politically inspired, uneconomic debt?

I’m in favor of returning to the marking of debt to the market. No more bailouts! If a debtor can’t pay his debts as scheduled, his assets are liquidated for * whatever * the going price is. I understand that this will result in massive deflation. Banking systems will fail as housing prices drop by 50% to 90%. Governments will fall too. Say goodbye to the school-loan system, and government “research grants” funding dubious-social science that made our Colleges and Universities as rich as the medieval church! But all this is going to happen anyways.

The current policy of bailing out insolvent, but politically connected debtors will in time result in hyper-inflation. And Hyper-inflation is even worse for political careers, the banking system, and lives of private citizens. We need to admit that there is no painless solution to our economic problem. Of the two solutions we are confronted with, the one that results in truly affordable housing, lower taxes, and steady employment in 2 to 3 years seems preferable to me. But this path will result in the destruction of the life’s work of our current political class of Academics, Bankers and Politicians. These elites only understand the common people as a human resource to be exploited.

They have brought the world to the edge of an economic abyss. With the people now in control of Washington, and the world’s financial system, it seems unlikely they will ever understand the wisdom of not taking the plunge over the side.

Mark J. Lundeen

13 July 2010

Mlundeen2@Comcast.net

"Grandad Bandit" sought in 23 bank robberies

2010-07-08T13:03:00.003-04:00

Not your average bank robber.

The FBI suspects that the "Grandad Bandit has robbed 23 banks since early January 2010. The picture shown is the suspect robbing the St. Louis bank on May 18, 2010.

The middle-aged suspect in a robbery spree stretching from Syracuse, N.Y., to St. Louis is believed to have hit at least two Houston banks, FBI officials said Tuesday.

Dubbed the "Granddad Bandit" by FBI investigators, the man has robbed at least 23 banks in a dozen states. The crime wave began in mid-January 2009, agents said.

The latest happened Saturday at a Wachovia Bank branch in the 6800 block of Buffalo Speedway, FBI officials said.

He opened a black bag and passed a note to the teller, demanding a specific amount of cash and allowing only 30 seconds to comply. He took money from the teller, placed it in his bag and left. No injuries were reported, FBI officials said.

The man is also a suspect in the April 10 holdup of an Allegiance Bank branch in the 200 block of North Durham, FBI officials said.

Investigators described the suspect as a balding white male in his early 50s. He is slightly taller than 6 feet and weighs about 220 pounds. He wore glasses, a blue polo shirt and khaki pants.

Anyone with information is asked to contact Crime Stoppers at 713-222-TIPS (8477).

In addition to up to $5,000 offered by Crime Stoppers, the FBI will give a $10,000 reward for information leading to the man's capture.

Where is the crime wave? A critical analysis of the FBI Crime Report Data Released Today

2010-05-25T22:52:00.005-04:00

From my book, Economic Misery and Crime Waves (2009), since 1954, EVERY sharp economic contraction has been followed by a crime wave, typically within one year. The sharp contraction occurred on with the fall of the housing of Lehman Brothers on 9/15/2008; that was the tipping point. Since that time the market has slid into a deep recession. Yet law makers, criminologists, and news makers now ask -- is this time different? Where is the crime wave?

If you follow my analysis, the crime wave will be first noticeable in Q4 2009 data.

However, the FBI did not release Q4 2009 data today. Rather, they released aggregated annual data that blends the results for the full year. The FBI recently released aggregate data for 2009 crime show that there was a decrease in violent crime of -5.5%, and a decrease in property crime of 4.9%.

What was not stated was that there was an increase in property crime in the 4th Quarter -- as the data were not broken out by month or quarter -- only annualized data. However, analyzing the FBI's own press release showing the first six months of the 2009 (Q1 and Q2) one can observe the following:

UCR Crime Type Q1+Q2 2009 >>> Q1+Q2+Q3+Q4 2009

Violent Crime -4.4% ->>> -5.5% Analysis ->> continued decreases in violent crime

Property Crime -6.1% ->>> -4.9% Analysis ->> property crime rising Q4-09

What caused the decrease in benefits of crime rate from -6.1% down to -4.9%?

Answer: rising property crime in the 4th Quarter 2009 -- consistent with the crime wave theory. The data will come out in time, but for now it is important to know that there was an increase, and the increase in property crime is likely to spill into 2010. More on this later.

It is significant that crime is down and that the crime wave is apparently forestalled in arrival. What could explain this? For starters, from 1929-1933, the US government implemented individual measures, non-simultaneous, to abate the financial crises, and the efforts were deemed too little, too late, and economic misery increased along with skyrocketing unemployment and economic misery. One of the lessons learned from this period was that there was a need for social insurance -- unemployment benefits, supports, etc. Another lesson was to move in a coordinated and deliberate manner to combat the conditions create economic misery and foster crime waves; what did the government do this time around that was not available in the 1930s;

- Insurance on bank deposits; not available in the 1930s, and expanded to $250,000 per account in the 2nd Great Recession.

- Social insurance -- such as unemployment insurance benefits provided now, with increasing, or lengthening benefits in the 2nd Great Recession.

- Government stimulus to the economy; including bank bail out; automotive industry bail out; mortgage purchasing by federal reserve; low (nearly free) money cost to banks in recovery mode.

- Coordinated international effort to stave off economic collapse.

These items, and many more, have served to change the macroeconomic conditions that fostered the great crime wave during the Great Depression. The question however, in the condition of prolonged economic misery, long-term unemployment, federal-state-and-local government budget deficits -- how long can the government continue to pay-forward for supports that will ultimately need to be repaid. The recent Greek and European debt crisis will likely have contagion and reach back to us here in the USA, and our debts are mammoth, far more than the Greece, Ireland, Spain, or Portugal financial problems.

As evidenced on this blog site -- there is mounting evidence reported in pockets globally of increases in crime that are at first anecdotal, that when reported, will show that a crime wave is emerging.

During the 1930s, great political effort was made to control public opinion and shape opinion to redirect attention to other crimes, thus lowering public perception of crime. I found it ironic that in today's FBI press release and comments that "targeting habitual offenders" was a strategy attributed to the crime decreases -- and this is a strategy right out of the Great Depression crime wave -- detailed in Economic Misery and Crime Waves (2009).

Another issue that received NO attention today in the FBI press release was Fraud. Fraud, organized retail crime, and other property crimes are on the rise -- but not reported in the public statements today.

It is my supposition that the FBI crime data underreports the impact of major frauds, and undetected frauds. For example, the Madoff ($50 billion) and Sanford ($7 billion) frauds sum over $57 billion in fraud, but will account for several dozen fraud counts; these counts will not appear to be out of the ordinary when blended with other data of frauds for $400, $2000, etc. These cases are not the same, yet they are reported categorically as fraud.

I am comfortable in my forecast that we will indeed experience a crime wave, and the evidences of the rising tide of crime are evident in the data -- but not the data released today by the FBI.

This will of course be an issue to track in the coming weeks, months, and years.

FBI Preliminary Crime Reports Show 5.5% Decrease in violent crime; 4.9% Decrease in Property Crime

2010-05-25T22:47:00.004-04:00

Press Release

For Immediate Release
May 24, 2010

Washington D.C.
FBI National Press Office
(202) 324-3691

FBI Releases Preliminary Annual Crime Statistics for 2009

Preliminary 2009 statistics indicate that violent crime in the nation decreased 5.5 percent and property crime declined 4.9 percent when compared with data from 2008, according to the FBI’s Preliminary Annual Uniform Crime Report, which was released today. Data in the report came from 13,237 law enforcement agencies that submitted six to 12 months of data in both 2008 and 2009.

Violent Crime

All four violent crime offenses—murder and nonnegligent manslaughter, forcible rape, robbery, and aggravated assault—declined nationwide in 2009 when compared with 2008 data. Robbery dropped 8.1 percent, murder decreased 7.2 percent, aggravated assault declined 4.2 percent, and forcible rape decreased 3.1 percent.
Violent crime fell in all city groupings. The largest decrease, 7.5 percent, was in cities with populations ranging from 500,000 to 999,999 inhabitants. Violent crime declined 4.0 percent in the nation’s metropolitan counties and 3.0 percent in nonmetropolitan counties.
Cities with 25,000 to 49,999 inhabitants were the only city population group to report an increase in the number of murders, 5.3 percent. The number of murders in the nation’s nonmetropolitan counties also rose, 1.8 percent.
Forcible rape trends dropped in all city population groups. The largest decrease was 7.3 percent in cities of less than 10,000 residents. Metropolitan counties reported a 3.7 percent decline in the number of rapes, but the number of rapes reported in nonmetropolitan counties rose slightly, 0.3 percent.
All population groups reported decreases in the volume of robbery in 2009. Of the city groups, cities with populations of 100,000 to 249,999 had the largest decrease at 10.3 percent. Metropolitan counties reported a 6.7 percent drop in robberies; nonmetropolitan counties reported a 0.7 percent decline.
The number of aggravated assaults declined in all population groups, with cities of 500,000 to 999,999 inhabitants reporting a 6.3 percent decrease. Aggravated assaults declined 3.7 percent in nonmetropolitan counties and 3.0 percent in metropolitan counties.
All four regions in the nation showed decreases in violent crime in 2009 when compared with data from 2008. Violent crime decreased 6.6 percent in the South, 5.6 percent in the West, 4.6 percent in the Midwest, and 3.5 percent in the Northeast.

Property Crime

All property crime offenses—burglary, larceny-theft, and motor vehicle theft—decreased in 2009 when compared with 2008 data. Motor vehicle theft showed the largest drop in volume at 17.2 percent, larceny-thefts declined 4.2 percent, and burglaries decreased 1.7 percent.
The nation’s largest cities, one million or more inhabitants, reported the greatest decrease, 7.9 percent, in property crime overall. Of the city groupings, this population group also reported the biggest decreases in the offenses that comprise property crime: a 21.1 percent drop in motor vehicle theft, a 5.7 percent decline in burglary, and a 5.5 percent decrease in larceny-theft. In the nation’s nonmetropolitan counties, larceny-thefts fell 9.5 percent; in metropolitan counties, larceny-thefts declined 5.9 percent.
The only population group to indicate a rise in any type of property crime was in nonmetropolitan counties, where burglary rose 0.5 percent.
In comparing 2008 data and 2009 data by region, law enforcement agencies in the West reported the biggest decline in property crime, with a decrease of 6.8 percent. Property crime declined 5.6 percent in the Midwest, 5.3 percent in the Northeast, and 3.2 percent in the South.

Arson

Arson offenses, which are tracked separately from other property crimes, declined 10.4 percent nationwide. All population groups reported decreases in the volume of arson offenses. In addition, arson fell in all four of the nation’s regions: 11.6 percent in the West, 10.6 percent in the South, 9.2 percent in the Midwest, and 8.6 percent in the Northeast.

The complete 2009 Preliminary Annual Uniform Crime Report is available exclusively at www.fbi.gov/ucr/prelimsem2009/index.html.

Rural crime reports rising - missing sheep, bees, fuel, and machines

2010-05-24T15:02:00.003-04:00

In the UK, Rising meat prices have been blamed by the National Farmers’ Union (NFU) for an increase in sheep rustling, with hundreds of animals stolen around the country this year. In the most recent incident, a flock of 271 sheep, worth up to £25,000, was taken from a field in Ramsbottom, near Bury, Lancashire on May 13. Read more in the article link.

Crime against farmers has risen, following a dip two years ago, and covers everything from siphoning fuel from combine harvesters to stealing bees, according to a report in The Guardian.

Tim Price of NFU Mutual insurance, said one recent claim involved 18 hives and 800,000 bees worth £6,000 missing from a farm in rural Shropshire.

He told the newspaper: "Crime adjusts to whatever is currently valuable. Farmers' quad bikes, for instance, are a new target, and there's evidence that good police work against thieves stealing luxury cars has driven them to target tractors instead.

“We're talking about machines worth £100,000 in some cases, which is every bit as tempting as a Ferrari.

Increasing crime in rural areas is predicted in Economic Misery and Crime Waves
(2009).

Is this news?: Man with drug addiction robs to obtain cash

2010-05-21T18:43:00.003-04:00

The following article appeared in the Niagara Gazette on 5/14/2010. The article shows how individuals can be a one-man crime wave. At issue, a man was let out of a drug rehabilitation program -- and with no job -- he immediately went out on a two-day crime spree robbing others before he was finally caught, and re-incarcerated this time at the jail house. This looks like a simple case of a man seeking money for drugs -- but there may be something else going on here to consider? With no job, no income, and no place to go -- is it surprising that a personal with criminal tendencies would return to crime? While he used a gun, he appeared to be a "pleasant" offender, asking his victims to just obey so he did not need to pull out his gun. Perhaps this speaks more about the transitional hand-off of a person re-entering society. Can you really just open the doors of the prison or drug-treatment center and expect individuals to function as normal law abiding citizens in an era of tight employment and economic hardship? Just asking questions. Now read the article and form your own opinions.

# # #

May 14, 2010

Drugs blamed for wave of crime

By Rick PfeifferNiagara Gazette

NIAGARA FALLS — A man who single-handedly staged a South End crime wave from Wednesday night through Thursday morning, went on his rampage just hours after leaving a drug treatment program.

Lawrence Colvin, 29, no permanent address, had been released on his own recognizance from the Falls City jail, where he was being held on charges stemming from a violent robbery and burglary, on Wednesday afternoon. By early Wednesday evening, he had walked out of a residential drug treatment facility.

Sources tell the Gazette Colvin spent just two hours at the facility before heading off to commit a series of robberies where he claimed to be armed with a gun.

The first holdup took place at 11:39 p.m. at gas station in the 500 block of Main Street. After waiting for customers in the station to leave, Colvin approached a clerk with a handwritten note and demanded cash.

Colvin indicated he had a gun and told the clerk, “Don’t act stupid.”

Four hours later, Colvin walked into a motel in the 400 block of Main Street and told a night auditor, “I have to rob you.”

“I said, ‘Are you serious?’,” the auditor told Falls police detectives. “He said, ‘I have a gun. Don’t make me show it to you.’”

Colvin grabbed an undisclosed amount of cash and fled.

Some three hours after that. Colvin entered a convenience store in the 400 block of Niagara Street and, again, waited for other customers to leave. He then walked up to the clerk and handed her a note demanding cash.

The clerk said Colvin had his hand on his hip “as if he had a gun.”

By late Thursday afternoon, Falls police cornered Colvin in a home at 440 Fourth St. and were able to take him into custody after a brief stand-off with the department’s Emergency Response Team.

“We got information that he was dropped off here,” Capt. David LeGault said. “His plan, apparently, was to hide out here until dark and go out and start robbing again.”

Colvin was arrested April 24, after he tried to break into a convenience store in the 600 block of Pine Avenue. The break-in was interrupted when a store clerk arrived for work and Colvin then forced her to give him money from the store’s cash register.

At the time of that arrest, Colvin said he had “a real bad addiction” to crack cocaine. On Thursday night, Colvin told investigators, “I remember robbing the gas station and (the convenience store) on Fourth and Niagara streets. I’m on drugs real bad and all (expletive) up.”

He has been charged with one count of first-degree robbery, two counts of third-degree robbery and three counts of petit larceny. He pleaded not guilty to all the charges during an arraignment Friday in Falls City Court.

Colvin is being held without bail, pending a preliminary hearing on Wednesday.

Crime Spree in Fayettte

2010-05-21T18:36:00.002-04:00

One of the aspects of a crime wave is that you know it has arrived when it achieves public attention. Consider the following news report from Fayette.

Local ABC Channel 11 reports,

Fayetteville police are asking the public for help in solving a rash of break-ins and burglaries.

Investigators say they have a narrow time span for the crime wave from early April to Wednesday, but they're not ruling out any cases before then.

In the meantime, some residents worry the police aren't moving fast enough.

"It's my kids and I worry about their safety and I'm mad as hell cause it's my house," burglary victim Taniesha Wright said.

Wright and her neighbors say they are fed up with the rash of burglaries in their neighborhood.

Detroit Mayor Perplexed by Crime Wave; Need Suggestions?

2010-05-21T18:10:00.004-04:00

One of the epicenters of economic misery is Detroit, Michigan.

It should not be surprising therefore that Detroit is experiencing a crime wave. What is of greater concern is that the city Mayor, David Bing, reports that he is perplexed, and does not know what to do about it?! The Mayor has described crime in the city as "demoralizing." Where is the leadership and vision?

Need some ideas? Read Chapters 5 and 6 in Severin Sorensen, CPP, Economic Misery and Crime Waves (2009) for some concrete recommendations.

It appears that the city leadership is in need of a strategy. I strongly suggest adopting a posture of crime opportunity blocking. Situational Crime Prevention is an opportunity blocking strategy that seeks to:

1. increase the effort needed to commit crime at specific places;

2. increase the risk associated with crime at specific places;

3. reduce the rewards for crimes committed at specific places;

4. remove excuses for non-performance, non-cooperation, and even

loitering at specific places, thereby blocking opportunity crimes; in

some cultures, this might include shaming to discourage participation in

crime, or encourage positive behavior.

There is more, but getting started here will set them on the right direction.

Used Car Auto Sales Fraud Proliferates -- the phantom escrow scam

2010-05-20T01:59:00.008-04:00

If anything is too good to be true --- it generally is not true. Purchase a $25k automobile for $9800 -- not a chance.

Frauds have existed for many years but it seems that new technologies, greed, and just ingenuity on the part of fraudsters keep the public guessing and at risk. Furthermore, it may be that hard economic times create pressures on many to find better deals, cheaper prices, and to chase the unbelievable.

I was recently in the market for a replacement vehicle and I considered purchasing a 2007 Chevy Tahoe LTZ with 4x4 and loaded options. I searched the online sites and found several attractively priced automobiles -- with much lower than market pricing. The only catch, the seller would not allow inspection of the vehicle and wanted money to be sent to a 3rd party escrow agent -- using some reported "ebay motors" escrow process -- the only thing is that Ebay does not offer such service. So I decided to check further and found this interesting article highlighting the typical escrow scam; http://theautoprophet.blogspot.com/2008/10/new-ebay-motors-scam.html

Take for instance this current ad posted at http://atlanta.craigslist.org/wat/pts/1735726456.html that reports to sell a 2007 Chevy Tahoe LTZ with 70,000 miles for $9800. The seller presents a somewhat believable story that he is in the military and heading overseas in a few weeks and he has decided to sell his car quickly. Here is the problem however, if the seller were really in need of cash -- he should take the vehicle to Carmax immediately and get average trade-in and get $25k with ease. This should send warning bells off to anyone -- it is illogical, and foolish.

And now to protect you the public from this scam and scammer I relate the following particulars of this particular scam, and communications from the scam seller to me (a potential buyer). The seller represents himself as James Roberson -- and this is indeed a pun as James indeed seeks to Rob me and my sons of my hard earned monies.

# # #

James Roberson

Mr. Roberson writes,

"My time is limited and as much as I'd like to meet you and close the deal in person or sell it locally, this is impossible for me. That's why I have decided to sell the car over the Internet."

The sale will be managed through eBay under their Vehicle Purchase Protection program since they offer the highest rate of safety and reliability during online transactions. They act as a neutral third party. I will briefly describe the Vehicle Purchase Protection Program transaction steps so I can make things clear for both of us:

1. Buyer and seller reach an agreement (price and delivery conditions)
2. Buyer sends money to an eBay Motors Agent.
3. eBay Motors confirm to seller that the amount has been received.
4. Seller performs the required services (shipping, insurance).
5. Buyer accepts delivery and informs eBay Motors about the acceptance.
6. eBay Motors release the money to seller.

They will hold and insure your money until you will receive and test the car.

I need your full name and shipping address so I can reserve the car for you and register the transaction with eBay and they will contact you with all the instructions step by step on how to complete the transaction.
VIN 1GNFK13007R220368

Here is what I find wrong with the above --

(1) This is a typical automobile escrow scam;

(2) Ebay motors does not provide an escrow service;

(3) The money transfers from your hands before you inspect the goods or title transfers;

(4) The proposed 3rd party unnamed dealer is unknown

(5) The seller refused to allow site inspection of the vehicle before the sale;

(6) The seller refused to meet the buyer at a neutral location such as a branch of a national bank in his area where a notary public, bona fide cashiers checks could be made and presented.

(7) The seller could or would not provide an opportunity to validate the title prior to money transfer; if the above vehicle were totaled and had a salvage title, it would be possible that it was just a shell and not operational.

(8) The VIN number provided is likely a valid number, however the background in the photos is not consistent with the sellers area, and looks more like Asheville, NC rather than Pensacola FL or Atlanta where the ads were posted.

So let this be a lesson to you, and beware -- if a deal looks to good -- it is to good -- and run, not walk away from the temptation.

In closing, here is some sage advice from another on this same topic: http://www.carbuyingtips.com/used.htm

Do Not Buy That Used Car If.....
These are the top mistakes made by used car buyers. Don't let this happen to you!
The 17 digit VIN#'s on the door, hood, engine, dashboard do not all match exactly
You failed to have a mechanic check out the car on a lift
You did not run the Experian AutoCheck Vehicle History Reports on the car's VIN# prior to purchasing
The title still shows a lien holder with no "Lien Satisfied" stamp on it. It means they still owe the bank
The AutoCheck report shows evidence of odometer rollback or title branded as junk, flooded, stolen, etc
There is no VIN# on the dashboard, or it has been filed down or altered in any way
The seller does not let you drive the car first
The seller does not back up every verbal promise IN WRITING!
The seller is NOT the owner of the car. It means they are a dealer's agent
The seller has no written bill of sale identifying the car, VIN#, and stating the title has not been rebuilt, etc.
The seller does not give you copies of anything you ask for
It's parked along the side of the road with a For sale sign, unless you can verify they are the owner
The seller has no drivers license, title, and registration for the car. Assume the car is stolen
You have not verified the seller's name on their drivers license is the same person on the car title
The seller refuses to let you take the car to a trusted mechanic for inspection
The seller's asking price is suspiciously far below market value
The seller makes you sign a power of attorney, or only wants cash
The seller tells you to pay now, and he'll get you the title tomorrow, it's locked up at the bank

Credit Card Fraud Escalates -- 40% increase in UK

2010-05-20T01:14:00.003-04:00

May 19, 2010. London Times reported... "The number of victims of the “hidden crime” of card fraud has leapt by 40 per cent in a year to more than 2.4 million people. Credit and debit card fraud, which cost the banks £440 million last year, is rising fast at a time when figures for other types of crime indicate that the feared recession crimewave has failed to materialize. The number of victims is not included in the annual British Crime Survey, however, disguising the full extent of property crime in England and Wales. People are three times more likely to fall victim to plastic card fraud than have their homes burgled. A total of 6.4 per cent of card owners were the victims of fraud in 2008-09 compared with 4.7 per cent the previous year. However, the extent of card crime is hidden because the crime survey gives only percentages rather than the precise number of victims."

Metal thefts rise in amount and sophistication

2010-05-18T01:33:00.004-04:00

From the New York Times - Photo of scrap yard metal available for recycling.

Criminals have become more brazen and educated in their metal thefts. It was formerly that drug users would scrap fully functioning air-conditioning units, guard rails, and other metals they could get their hands on. Now the metal crimes are much more glaring -- with miles of electrical power lines cut down, dragged, stripped, and hauled off within hours. The hyperlinked article shows the current plight of organized retail crime as it relates to metal theft.

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/05/16/us/16farms.html

Major Jewelers Hit by Crime Wave

2010-05-11T12:24:00.005-04:00

Jewellery Brands Targeted for Large Heists

World-famous jewellery brands are being targeted by brazen thieves, with De Beers and Tiffany & Co the latest victims.

A gang of 10 robbers used sledgehammers to break into the De Beers and Tiffany & Co stores in London’s Westfield shopping centre.

At least $1.6 million in jewellery was stolen in the night raids on Wednesday, May 5, The Australian reported last week

The robbery was over in just a few minutes, with the thieves fleeing the scene in stolen cars.

A high-speed police chase followed, however the gang managed to elude police.

After the robbery, Francois Delage, chief executive of De Beers, raised a few eyebrows by turning news of the theft into a sales pitch.

"This is an unfortunate incident, but is yet another reminder of the timeless allure of diamonds," he said.

London jewellers have experienced a spate of similar attacks over the past year, often involving gangs of thieves and heavy tools.

More than $6.7 million worth of goods have been taken from Watches of Switzerland, Cartier, Dolce & Gabbana and Tiffany & Co.

The most notable robbery occurred in August last year, when more than $67 million worth of diamonds were stolen from Graff Diamonds - Britain’s biggest jewellery robbery of all time.

Three teenagers have been arrested in relation to the most recent robberies, although charges are yet to be laid.

Crime Wave Alert - Atlanta GA - Campus Concerns

2010-04-29T13:06:00.003-04:00

Typically, the tipping point of recognition of a crime wave is some heinous incident. Such was the case this past Sunday in Atlanta.

In announcing the new offensive to bolster campus security, Atlanta Police Department acknowledged a singular incident raised consensus for need; last Sunday night four students were carjacked and kidnapped a block away from the Morehouse campus. The youths were able to call 911 on a cell phone and were rescued by police.

The Atlanta Constitution Reported that, "The plan was formalized Tuesday on Georgia Tech's campus, which has been plagued by a series of robberies dating back to May, when a student was shot at a parking deck on Northside Drive and Tenth Street. Last week, there were three incidents reported in which Tech students were robbed either on campus or a short distance from the school." "This is the second major APD initiative on campus crime in the last six months. Last fall then-Police Chief Richard Pennington announced the department would dispatch eight uniformed officers to keep watch over the neighborhoods near Tech and the Atlanta University Center. But Turner said those increased patrols dwindled once the revenue source for overtime pay dried up."

Crime Wave Alert - Chicago violent crime on the rise, appeals for national guard to assist

2010-04-26T11:42:00.002-04:00

CNN reported on April 26, 2010, that a "violent crime wave in Chicago" has prompted calls for the National Guard to step in. Two Illinois law makers are urging IL State Governor Pat Quinn to deploy troops following a recent surge in violent crime. Unfortunately, the National Guard, outside of Military Police, are not trained for doing police work -- they are not versed in domestic law enforcement, and are not a good fit. Yet it is interesting to observe that for all the publicly voiced opinions that no crime wave exists, that there are some experiencing acute pain from this economic downturn that they attribute to the conditions giving rise to a crime wave.

Read the article below. The comments on the CNN web link are also revealing in terms of capturing attitudes about the crime situation in Chicago.

April 26, 2010

Chicago Violence: Is the National Guard the Solution?

Posted: 09:15 AM ET

A violent crime wave in Chicago prompts a call for the National Guard to step in. Two Illinois lawmakers, State Reprepresentatives John Fritchey (D) and LaShawn Ford (D), are urging Governor Pat Quinn to deploy troops following a recent surge in violent crime. "We're not talking about rolling tanks down the street," said Fritchey. "If we bring them in to fill sand bags and pick up tornado debris, we can bring them in to save lives."

While they may believe the Guard is the solution, Chicago Police Supt. Jody Weis disagrees. Weis says the Guard's military training falls short of the criminal laws and procedures that police must follow in combating crime. “I’m not that mixing the National Guard with local law enforcement is the solution," Weis said.

We want to hear from you. Tell us whether you think the National Guard should be called in to help combat the city’s recent crime wave.

Leave us a comment. We’ll share some of them on air in the CNN Newsroom, 11am – 1pm ET

Crime Wave Alert - Honduras - civil unrest, massive peasant squatters movement

2010-04-16T09:06:00.004-04:00

In Honduras, government leaders are calling it a crime wave, and are planning to use the military to put down crime wave, that peasant leaders fear will include an assault on peasant squatters that have seized over 10,000 acres of farmland from large corporate owners.

"Zelaya's supporters expressed fear the security buildup might be used in a crackdown on a peasant squatter movement in the area. Just before the coup, about 3,000 farm workers seized almost 10,000 acres (4,000 hectares) in commercial plantations used to grow African palms. The pro-Zelaya National Popular Resistance Front said the Aguan deployment posed a serious threat of raids to clear the squatters."

The AP Press reported that "Troops will be sent into Honduras' streets to help police combat a wave of violent crime, the government said Tuesday. Defense Minister Marlon Pascua told reporters that soldiers will be assigned to search vehicles and pedestrians and pursue criminal suspects. He did not specify when the troops would be deployed."

This Central American country of 7.7 million people suffered more than 5,300 homicides in 2009 while grappling with a political crisis touched off by a coup. The country's army was harshly criticized after soldiers hustled then-President Manuel Zelaya out of the country aboard an airplane last June. All six members of the military's Joint Chiefs of Staff were charged with abuse of power in January, but all were later cleared by a Supreme Court judge. Lawmakers approved amnesty for both Zelaya and all those involved in his removal. On Monday, Lobo's administration announced it was sending more than 2,000 soldiers and police officers to the Atlantic coast region around the Aguan River to seize drugs and illegal weapons. Drug cartels are increasingly using the coasts of Central America to move drugs toward the U.S. market.

Crime wave in New Haven: murder on the rise

2010-04-13T11:29:00.005-04:00

What will the crime wave look like when it arrives? This is a question that researchers and watchers are asking. Criminal justice scholars are pleased with their observation that "no crime" wave has occurred, and that somehow this time is different. City leaders in New Haven are not so sure, as they are experiencing rapidly increasing violence in the past four months, with 17 homicides so far this year.

Despite the well intended scholars, or the hopeful politicians, this time is not different -- we will not avoid a crime wave -- rather it will get a lot worse before it gets better as we went so much further down the economic roller coaster, and we have yet to pull up. Furthermore, it is dangerous anytime someone suggests that somehow this time is different. This logic allows city officials to lay-off police at the same time that the conditions for crime are brewing. It must be remembered that it was not until 1933, some four years after the 1929 stock market crash, that the public was so greatly outraged by crime that something was done about it. Murder, extortion, kidnapping, racketeering, bank robberies, and many other crimes were the seminal markers of crime wave during the Great Depression era.

Consider now what is happening in our nations cities. Each is different, unique, and yet all are suffering from new conditions. The streets are getting meaner. Consider the recent press conference held Monday (yesterday) that marked the first time city leaders have spoken publicly to discuss the crime wave, responding to the continuing violence and rising anxiety in the city. New Haven Police Department Chief Frank Limon, who was sworn in just last week, said he will work on strategies for his “Operation Corridor” policing campaign, which was just launched this weekend and increased police presence in the area where the recent murders occurred. In the past four months, there have been 17 homicides, 15 of which involved firearms, Limon said. Most of the victims were in their late 20s or 30s and were recently released from prison. All were black, and this is most troubling as only 12% of the city population is African American, so this is intensely located in specific demographic areas, but it impacts the whole city.

New Haven is a densely populated city of 160,000 located along I-95 on the easter n seaboard. The city is comprised of a 19 square mile area.

Is there something going on in New Haven? In past economic crises, such as the Great Depression, criminal organizations were more violent to each other seeking to take away turf and restore profits. Perhaps times are not so different on the mean streets where it is believed that the victims and shooters are somehow gang related.

Crime Wave Alert - Bahamas

2010-04-03T10:09:00.001-04:00

Coming & Going: Violent crime is up in the Bahamas

Sunday, March 14, 2010

The Washington Post

Crime wave

Bahamas-bound travelers, beware.

Crime in the popular tourist destination is on the upswing, especially on New Providence Island, where the capital city, Nassau, is located. And we're not talking just petty thefts or purse-snatching, but far more serious violent crime.

This island nation finished 2009 with a record 87 murders -- a statistic tourism officials probably won't be trumpeting in their next "It's Better in the Bahamas" ad.

More recently, on Feb. 25, an American tourist was attacked in his hotel room on usually tranquil Harbour Island (60 miles from Nassau) by two men wielding a cutlass, according to the Tribune newspaper. The victim survived and suspects are in custody, but the incident prompted police and Ministry of Tourism officials to meet with concerned Harbour Island residents last Monday.

Bahamian officials from Prime Minister Hubert Ingraham on down have publicly acknowledged the problem and taken steps to address it, putting more police on the streets in Nassau, especially after 18 cruise ship passengers became victims of an armed robbery in November.

The criminal activity has prompted the operators of the world's largest cruise ship, Oasis of the Seas, to warn its passengers to "be mindful of their personal safety," the Nassau Guardian newspaper reported.

CoGo isn't waving sun-seekers away from the Bahamas, because most of the violent crime seems to have occurred in New Providence's "Over the Hill" neighborhoods,where few tourists venture. Would-be tourists should also know that crime hasn't been as much of an issue in the Bahamas' less populated Family Islands, such as Exuma, Bimini and Abaco.

Even so, "be mindful" seems like an appropriate mantra for visitors, especially in Nassau, where the State Department has reported "assaults, including sexual assaults, in diverse areas such as in casinos, outside hotels, or on cruise ships."

Some Bahamians attribute the crime wave to high unemployment (hovering around 15 percent on New Providence Island, according to the Guardian) and the nation's status as a gathering spot for drug traffickers.

On a personal note, CoGo saw no evidence of criminal activity during a recent three-day stay in Nassau, if you discount the scruffy young man who whispered "coke, weed, coke, weed" as we strolled along Bay Street, the main shopping drag, one evening.

For more on this article, click the hyperlink above.

Middle Class Customers increasing Shoplifting Behaviors

2010-04-03T10:06:00.000-04:00

10th November, 2009

Middle-class turning to shoplifting

Affluent shoppers hit by the recession are fuelling a shoplifting crimewave, according to research.

( 0 )

Middle-class people reluctant to give up luxuries they can no longer afford are behind thefts of expensive foods, alcohol and cosmetics, the Centre for Retail Research data claimed.

More middle-class people are shoplifting, a report suggests

Hundreds of retailers said shoplifting surged as goods were taken for personal use and not for resale by organised criminal gangs.

Shoplifting shot up by a fifth in the 12 months to June, leaving shops to pick up a £4.88 billion bill for lost stock.

The data was compiled from 42,000 shops across Europe by the Centre for Retail Research on behalf of Checkpoint Systems, a retail security company.

Britain registered the highest rate of shoplifting in Europe and only the United States and Japan had higher levels worldwide.

Neil Matthews, of Checkpoint Systems, said: "We are seeing more instances of amateur thieves stealing goods for their own personal use rather than to sell on than before. This is epitomised in the recent uprising of the middle-class shoplifter, someone who has turned to theft to sustain their standard of living.

"This is driving theft of items such as cosmetics, perfumes and face creams, alcohol, fresh meat, mobile phones, computer games and DVDs as well as small electrical goods like cameras, iPods and personal care gadgets."

Researchers questioned 1,069 large retailers with combined sales of £514 billion for the survey.

ttp://www.retailresearch.org/home/index.php(Centre for Retail Research)

12-year old Juvenile One-Man Crime Wave! (UK)

2010-04-03T10:04:00.001-04:00

METRO REPORTER - 16th March, 2010

12-year-old 'crimewave' boy jailed

A violent 12-year-old car thief has become one of the country’s youngest prisoners after a string of more than 30 offences.

( 0 )

The one-boy crimewave was given a ten-month detention sentence after admitting assault and aggravated vehicle taking.

The Essex boy, who is ‘too young and vulnerable’ to be named, had ‘bared his teeth like a wild animal’ when he attacked a woman and a man, magistrates in Witham heard.

After the attack, he stole keys to a red Audi TT, mounting pavements on an erratic drive – only just able to see over the wheel.

Crime opportunity and Craigslist; a match making domain

2010-04-03T09:54:00.002-04:00

Craigslist has created a valuable community of interests for many goods and services. I myself have purchased and sold goods and services from listings that I have either posted or viewed online; these are legitimate purposes of this social networking service.

However, there is a nefarious use of Craigslist and that is for prostitution, trafficking stolen goods, and most recently trafficking children. Consider this article commenting on crime related to Craigslist sites on the east coast of the USA.

Latest Craigslist Washington post and Craigslist crime wave mirrors N.C.'s past

March 24, 11:16 AMRaleigh Headlines ExaminerLoretta Arnold

Thinking about going on Craigslist to purchase a child at a low, low price? From prostitution rings, rape requests and thefts, nothing compares to the recent mystery where a man tries to sell his child for the low price of $5,000.

Rick Oberlophy, the Craigslist user name, posted that his son was for sale. Some believe the posting was a hoax, others disregard the claims and take potential child trafficking seriously. The posting was copied by a woman viewer before the man removed it, according to Seattle Weekly.

"It's going to kill me to do this but I stated before I cannot afford to keep him. His mother(r) is out of the picture and my parents no longer talk to me since I've had Gavin. So I don't know what else to do other than find a good family with kids or a couple that want a son."

Other descriptions were added that the child loves playing with balls, does not like playing with cars, and refused to eat vegetables.

The Craigslist investigation involving "Rick Oberlophy" is ongoing. However, "Gavin's" father was arrested.

In this day and age Craigslist cannot be ruled out as a use for child trafficking since the grapes of prostitution and pimping out loved ones dangle along the Craigslist highway in fruitful bundles.

Craigslist: Sex for Sale

During July of 2009 illegal prostitution surfaced through Craigslist on multiple levels. The State shares of 15 arrested in their involvement in a Craigslist prostitution ring. Most of the prostitutes were found in a North Carolina motel. The North Carolina bust surprised many Craigslist users. Craigslist prostitution red flags were easy to spot, especially when the ad began to speak of meeting someone for a good time.

One month earlier North Carolina police arrested Wayne Ford, a Charlotte Craigslist user. He wasn't selling anything that he couldn't steal. He only wanted to meet up with a S.C. girl on Craigslist to rob and rape her at a University City motel while impersonating police officer.

Unfortunately, North Carolina authorities were not able to stop this crime before it began. Although it just goes to show you beware of Craigslist's sweet talkers. Before connection on Craigslist perhaps going to a single's bar alone at night proves a safer choice.

A busy last summer as a North Carolina manhunt was on for raping a woman at knifepoint according to ABC News and local affiliates. The missing rapist was said to have been hired by the wife's husband in order to satisfy her fantasy. However, the woman claims otherwise as their children were less than 20 feet away in another room when she was raped.

Theft Rings:

North Carolina has also had it's share of Craigslist thefts, including theft rings. Between catching stolen merchandise that gallops through Craigslist and sifting illegal sex trades the North Carolina authorities has their work cut out for them as does each and every state.

As long as there remains the exotic corner of the Craigslist search where you can find just about anything and the lack of monitoring on the legality of merchandise, America may just have to live with a couple false entries hidden behind criminal motives. But when is enough too much?

Craigslist in America:

Craigslist of Los Angeles posts include Gang Bang Videos, Horny Now, Business Man Visiting LA - I Can Show You Around, and others in between Rocket Skates.

Why go to strip clubs, massage parlors, buy me drinkee bars, escort services, or hope to hook up with a madam willing to pimp you out for a burger and a pack of smokes when all you have to do is go through Craigslist?

As for North Carolina's Craigslist today we find casual encounters. However, when entering casual encounters it's not as pleasant as the title appears with explicit postings. From give me sex ads to I'll be your maintenance man - our little secret, Craigslist continues to influence an exotic and unusual trade. Even when they are not aware of illegal activities involving children or potential Craigslist crime waves.

North Carolina law enforcement community knows this all too well.

____________________

Source(s): Ely Portillo, 15 arrested in N.C. Craigslist prostitution crackdown, The State; Los Angeles, Craigslist; Caleb Hannan, Spokhane Father Puts Son For Sale on Craigslist, The Daily Weekly, Seattle Weekly; Sarah Netter, Police: Husband Hires Wife's Rapist Off Craigslist for Sexual Fantasy, ABC News

Crime Wave Alert - California

2010-04-03T09:48:00.003-04:00

California has been hit with long term unemployment, a terrible housing downturn, and characteristically, these conditions can create conditions of economic misery that can lead to crime waves. Consider the following report:

Loomis Neighborhood Rocked By Crime Wave

More Local News

Reporting
Neda Iranpour

LOOMIS (CBS13) ―

Click to enlarge 1 of 1: CBS

Loomis residents are worried about a rash of burglaries that have swept through their neighborhood.

There have been five car break-ins in just one cul-de-sac over the last two weeks. Homeowners are taking safety into their own hands. They're forming a neighborhood watch, installing alarms, cameras, lights, and patrolling the streets looking for anything suspicious.

"They've taken away that feeling of security and small town safety," said Diane, a Loomis resident.

"Hey, were not immune to problems Loomis is a nice town, but crime is coming to us," said Bob Peugh, a burglary victim.

Neighbors were told these break-ins may be linked to waves of crime in Elk Grove, Rocklin, Granite Bay, and Napa Valley.

Not everyone believes a crime wave is coming; certainly not the FBI or selective police chiefs

2010-04-03T09:38:00.002-04:00

While this blog's author believes that a global crime wave is inevitable, and has published this blog to provide a voice of warning, caution, and preparedness, not everyone agrees with this scenario.

The FBI and selective police chiefs site lower crime rates since the recession began. Referenced in this article appearing in the Atlanta Journal and Constitution, one scholar believes that perhaps one reason the crime wave has not hit is the impact of exogenous factors such as the stimulus plan that moved to lengthen the term of benefits for unemployed (meaning increased social insurance) and additional jobs replacing some of the lost jobs during this period. And there is some merit in this argument. The question remains however, can placing a thumb in the hole spring in the dike hold back the raging flood waters?

Read below an excerpt from the AJC:

Across the nation, crime, on the whole, is down considerably, especially property crimes and violent crimes such as robbery.

The counterintuitive nature of this recession makes sense when you peel back the layers.

Take home burglaries, for instance.

“We assume crime climbs when the economy is down,” said Rosenfeld, Curators Professor of Criminology and Criminal Justice at the University of Missouri in St. Louis. But “during high unemployment, more people are at home and that cuts the rates of burglary.”

Additionally, people tend to carry fewer valuables these days, so there are fewer street crimes such as robberies, Rosenfeld added.

The drug trade, which usually grows and flourishes in a recession, has been contained mostly within the groups of people who were already buying and selling drugs. In the past, disputes over drug deals often resulted in murders or other violent crimes. Now, they’re contained and rarely reported. After all, who’s going to go to the police about a drug deal gone bad?

“The absence of expansion in the drug market could be related to the absences of crime increasing,” Rosenfeld said.

Add last year’s stimulus money, which extended unemployment benefits and food stamps to millions and helped many communities keep more police on the street, and you get a clearer picture.

“That may have cushioned the low-income against the full effects of the economic downturn,” Rosenfeld said.

# # #

For my part, I am quite confidant that in the annals of history that this extraordinary period of economic calamity will indeed foster conditions that will incubate a crime wave born of economic misery from long-term sustained unemployment, loss of income, loss of purchasing power (through devalued real estate) and a portent of inflation on the horizon.

Crime Wave Alert - India

2010-04-03T09:35:00.001-04:00

From the Financial Times (India), The number of crimes in Dhaka city appears to have shot up very menacingly over the last one month. This is not to say that the crime rate was significantly better before this period. The law and order conditions have been found sliding for over a year. But crimes of the type like trying to snatch the daughter away from parents or ones indicating the depths of depravity, were not so much noted before. What is very worrying is the spurt in such crimes in the city. Only last week, a couple lost their lives from trying to protect their youngestdaughter whom the attackers on the ground of not being allowed to marry her made an attempt to forcibly kidnap her. When the parents tried to resist this, they were fired upon and killed. Prior to this event, the deceased parents got phone calls and were called upon personally by the assassins who demanded that their daughter must be handed over to them.

The slain couple had tried their best to get the protection of the police but to no effect. Only days after this incident on Saturday, another couple and theirdaughter in the Kalabagan area came under attack with knives and received serious injuries. The attacker was a young man who was identified as an acquaintance of the daughter and who, allegedly, did this out of frustration for not getting some 2.0 million Taka he had demanded from the couple. The above are only some of the incidents that made headlines recently. Apart from these, a number of persons were killed or found dead in the city during the last seventy-two hours or so.

Drug peddling rackets and their members are mainly at the heart of such crimes. Youngsters and many of them in their teens are seen to be most reckless and uncaring members of these gangs. Their number has been increasing and police in many cases are alleged to be their patrons. Regular bribes received from them are guessed to be the main reason why police keep so quiet despite the unacceptable spread of these gangs and their increasingly brutal modus operandi.

The killers of the first couple are alleged to be well known members of drug rackets. They apparently had the confidence that police would do nothing to stop them from being so reckless in their murderous activities or their trying to intimidate the girl's parents before the murders. The relatives of the deceased made known this helplessness of the dead couple to the media subsequently. In most of the other cases of crimes now sweeping the city, the same kind of mentality is seen to be pervasive. Thus, citizens need not be blamed if they come to the conclusion that they have nobody to turn to or there are no dependable institutions of the state to meet the minimum needs of security of their lives and property.

Crime Wave Alert - Europe - Gypsie Children pulled into Fagan like crime rings

2010-04-03T09:33:00.001-04:00

Gypsy child crime wave grips Europe

By Mark Bannerman

Updated Mon Mar 29, 2010 9:13am AEDT

Living in slums: many Gypsy children grow up in homes with no running water or official power sources. (AFP: Max Rossi)

One of Romania's most powerful criminals has warned his country must do something to stop the wave of Gypsy child crime that is sweeping Europe or face a backlash against Romanians.

Simply known as Breliant, he freely boasts a pedigree rich in thieves. But this week on Four Corners he explains that unless gangs run by his countrymen stop using children to rob and steal, the Romanian Gypsies will be driven out of other EU countries.

"Over the last 20 years I've seen the anti-Gypsy feeling getting stronger, not only in Romania but across Europe," he said.

"I've also seen Gypsy petty crime turn into serious crime, into international organised crime."

Any tourist in Europe knows the threat of street crime is a major problem. Some people are targeted by pickpockets while others are harassed at cash teller machines.

Most of the thieves are young children below the age of 14. In many countries they cannot be held criminally responsible until they pass 14 years.

Lucrative

One of the children spoken to by Four Corners is 13-year-old Daniela.

She has little or no education but pickpocketing in Madrid can earn her up to $500 for a successful robbery. If she gets away with her scam she takes the money to her mother. It is used to buy food and some of it is repatriated to Romania to buy a house.

This week's Four Corners reveals that while some children steal to survive, many are part of a network of organised groups that rob tourists and locals, passing the money back to crime bosses in Romania.

The wave of crime perpetrated by Gypsy children began in earnest when Romania was admitted to the EU.

It is now so bad that authorities in the major Italian city of Milan have declared a state of emergency. The city officials authorised police to set up an undercover operation that used hidden cameras and telephone taps to arrest dozens of people.

In all, 19 adults were jailed for theft and the abuse of children. The investigation found some children were generating up to $15,000 to $20,000 a month from their criminal activities.

That did not mean the children were well-treated. In one raid, police broke into a farmhouse and found children locked in a cupboard. They were unwashed and malnourished.

Crime Wave Alert - Uganda

2010-04-03T09:30:00.000-04:00

THE Police yesterday warned of a new wave of crime that has hit the city involving people employed by owners of commercial buildings breaking into shops and stealing property.

The Police said such people lock themselves inside commercial buildings and access shops through the ceiling.

Speaking at the weekly Police press briefing at the Kampala Central Police Station, the Kampala deputy Police spokesperson, Henry Kalulu, said incidents like that are now common.

He paraded before the press Salif Lubega, a welder at Cooper Complex, a commercial building, downtown Kampala, whom he said was arrested over the weekend in connection with the vice.

“Lubega on Saturday night locked himself in the office in which he was working and climbed through the ceiling. He broke into two shops and stole phones. Fortunately, when he was jumping out through a hole in the roof, he was arrested,” Kalulu said, adding that four similar break-ins have been reported.

He said two incidents occurred in the same complex about a month ago, and a similar complaint was received from a nearby complex recently.

“In the incidents, there are no signs of padlocks or door locks having been broken but property is missing,” Kalulu said.

He cautioned landlords to be careful, especially when employing people, adding that Lubega will be charged with theft.

Crime wave alert - Nigeria

2010-04-03T09:28:00.000-04:00

NIAMEY (Reuters) - Niger authorities arrested 618 suspects overnight in raids aimed at curbing a crime wave in the capital, Niamey, state radio announced on Tuesday.

"Operation Punch" took place in neighbourhoods across the city, where residents say serious food shortages, on top of already severe poverty, have led to a spike in crime.

It was not immediately clear if the operation was linked to the weekend wave of arrests of senior officials linked to former President Mamadou Tandja, who was ousted by the army in a coup last month.

"We will identify people and, if there is nothing to charge them with, we will free them, as the law requires," said one police officer, asking not to be named.

Over the last few weeks, Niamey has seen an increase in armed robberies and carjackings -- and an increase in the number of suspected robbers lynched by angry crowds.

Crime Wave Alert - USA

2010-04-03T09:25:00.001-04:00

Niagara crime wave alert!

Thu, 2010-04-01 10:19.

Rick Fleming

Niagara police are warning you about an outbreak of thefts in the Grimsby, Beamsville, Jordan, Smithville and West Lincoln areas.

So far, over 65 incidents have been reported; mainly items stolen from unlocked vehicles and garages. Last year, thieves stuck over 250 times.

Officers say you should remove valuable items from your car, or at least ensure they are out of sight, so as not to tempt thieves.

RILA Reports Increasing Organized Retail Crime

2010-03-29T12:04:00.003-04:00

Despite the press releases from the FBI reporting that crime rates are falling, there are many that are experiencing much higher crime levels, indeed organized crime is rising for the retail sector after surveying RILA retail members. Specific rising crime trends observed include the following:

According to the survey, the largest retailers report that retail crime is continuing to rise as the

economy turns toward recovery.

· 78% of retailers report seeing an increase in amateur and opportunistic shoplifting

· 65% of retailers report seeing an increase in organized retail crime

· 74% of retailers report seeing an increase of stolen items being found in online market

places compared to 47% in traditional fencing operations, 47% in flea markets and 16%

in pawn shops

Retailers are also seeing an increase in burglary and fraud while reporting that other types of

crimes, such as robbery and ID theft, are unchanged and continue to remain problems for

retailers. These trends remain consistent with historical crime trends associated with economic

distress and job instability and therefore continue to persist alongside the current economic

climate.

RILA reports that "Estimates report that ORC costs retailers tens of billions of dollars annually. These crimes are attributable to groups of well-organized thieves who steal goods and resell them into the stream of commerce – a characteristic that distinguishes ORC from petty thievery or shoplifting. Furthermore, ORC gangs often rely on the money received from fencing stolen merchandise to fund other criminal activity."

# # #

The Retail Industry Leaders Association (RILA) is the trade association of the world’s most

innovative and successful retail companies, whose executives participate in RILA for its unique

educational forums, its effective public policy advocacy, and its advancement of the retail

industry.

RILA members include more than 200 retailers, product manufacturers, and service suppliers,

which together account for more than $1.5 trillion in annual sales, millions of American jobs and

more than 100,000 stores, manufacturing facilities and distribution centers domestically and

abroad.

RILA Contacts:

Survey Information

Casey Chroust

Executive Vice President, Retail Operations

703‐600‐2014

casey.chroust@rila.org

7000+ protest crime wave in Mexico

2010-03-29T11:55:00.001-04:00

One of the signs of the peak of a crime wave is the rallying cries by public that a crime wave exists, and something should be done about it. The press mention below is an increasingly more typical outcry over crime that will undoubtedly lead to increased public pressure to resolve the problem.

# # #

From the Associated Press.

MONTERREY, Mexico — More than 7,000 people have gathered in the northern Mexico city of Monterrey to protest a wave of violence that has affected the country's third largest city in recent weeks.

Most of the protesters wore white at a rally in Monterrey's main park and some released white balloons and a white dove as signs of peace.

Nuevo Leon state Gov. Rodrigo Medina led the protesters on a brief walk through Fundidora Park. His border state has seen a surge in violence that authorities blame on a turf war between the Gulf drug cartel and the Zetas, the cartel's former hit men.

Hours before the rally Sunday, two soldiers and a civilian were wounded in a shootout between troops and gunmen in Monterrey.

# # #

This protest is the outcry over the recent beheading of the Police Chief in Northern Mexico; see below:

Again, from the Associated Press,

Monterrey(Mexico), Mar 27 (AFP) - The headless bodies of a police chief and another man presumed to be a police officer turned up in the trunk of a police car in north Mexico, local justice officials have said.

The bodies of the police chief of Agualeguas town, in Nuevo Leon state, and the apparent officer were found in the abandoned car yesterday, prosecutor Alejandro Garza told journalists.

"We assume that the crime is linked to organised crime, due to the savagery of the killing," Garza said.

Mexico's powerful drug gangs often carry out beheadings and torture to send messages to their enemies, and deadly attacks occur almost daily amid a military clampdown on organised crime.

The Face of Crime in Dayton -- Organized Crime Rings Taken Down

2010-03-03T14:35:00.003-05:00

One of the key crime control strategies of the Great Depression era was targeting the money, and targeting those serious habitual offenders, and taking them down. Here is a real-world example of one such operation -- "Operation BoltCutter," and the result.

The face of crime often illudes citizens as they think to images on television. Here, in one article, is a great depicition of what is going on out there in some of our nations communities -- it is the face of somewhat organized crime, impacting communities in the heartland. Read below.

4 major crime rings dismantled, authorities say

By Jeremy P. Kelley, Staff Writer, Dayton Daily NewsUpdated 7:41 PM Tuesday, January 5, 2010

CENTERVILLE — Twenty Dayton-area residents responsible for major drug trafficking, violent robberies and home invasions, and theft on a grand scale were arrested through undercover investigations into four crime rings in the past two years, law enforcement officials said Tuesday, Jan. 5. The arrests, 12 of which have already led to convictions, were the result of local, state and federal cooperation through the Ohio Organized Crime Investigations Commission’s “Operation BoltCutter.”

“Studies have shown that a small percentage of the population commits a large percentage of the crimes,” said Carter Stewart, U.S. Attorney for the southern district of Ohio. “This operation went after that small percentage and was successful.”

Suburban drug/theft

Sources told local police in 2008 that Colburn “Butch” Kinzer, 63, was operating a pharmaceutical drug ring out of Miamisburg and West Carrollton, according to Williams. An undercover agent infiltrated the group and heard Kinzer brag that he also was sending several thousand pills to Kentucky weekly. Kinzer was arrested and has been sentenced to five years in federal prison on drug convictions.

Williams said authorities found a major theft ring out of the Kinzer investigation. They found more than 40 drug users in Montgomery and Warren counties who shoplifted merchandise — up to $2,000 worth a week, causing huge losses for retailers — and sold them through a series of “fences” to support their drug habits.

Money laundering and theft charges are pending in Warren County against seven people from Miamisburg, Franklin, Springboro and West Carrollton, and Williams said additional charges are expected soon.

Pharmacy robberies

Brian Campbell and Ronald Schroyer of Trotwood are accused of stealing “extremely large quantities” of Oxycontin and Vicodin from six pharmacies across Ohio in 2009, including two in Riverside, one in Sidney and one in New Carlisle, where they were caught on Aug. 8.

Williams said more than 120,000 pills were stolen, and the arrests will make an impact on the amount of pharmaceutical drugs being trafficked in the Dayton area.

Campbell has pleaded guilty to gun and drug charges and is awaiting sentencing. He also faces 11 charges connected to an auto theft ring. Schroyer’s drug case is pending in federal court.

Home invasions

Bobby Wells and John McIntire of Dayton led a group that committed drug crimes and armed home invasions in Ohio, Kentucky and Indiana, often raiding homes while dressed as law enforcement officers, according to Williams. A federal Alcohol, Tobacco and Firearms agent infiltrated the ring and set up a fake robbery in February 2008, where SWAT teams took the group into custody. Wells, McIntire and four others have been sentenced to a total of more than 70 years in federal prison.
Reginald Brooks of Trotwood led a sophisticated gang that committed burglaries, kidnappings for ransom and armed home invasions over a span of several years in Montgomery and Greene counties, according to Williams. Like the other gang, they often simulated police raids when they stole drugs, cash and guns from drug dealers, but this group also used informants and high-tech surveillance.

Authorities have tied the group to about 500 unsolved felonies. Williams said the group injured victims in some cases and demanded ransoms from family members in others. Brooks and three others were arrested by SWAT teams in the summer of 2008 and have been sentenced to a combined 40 years on cocaine charges.

“The only way you’re ever going to reduce the amount of violent crime in our communities is taking the most violent individuals and getting them in prison,” Williams said. “These home invasion gangs are the sharks at the top of the food chain. No one wants to come forward and talk because everyone’s scared to death of them. ... But when you get them off the street, you take some of the fear factor away from the public.”

Contact this reporter at (937) 225-2278 or jkelley@DaytonDailyNews.com.

Crime wave spurs patrols by Dayton police

2010-03-03T14:22:00.004-05:00

It is difficult to stand up against a known trend: crime waves follow economic misery and heightened unemployment; since 1954, there has been a crime wave following each sharp economic contraction, and our time is no different.

Consider the following from the front lines in Dayton Daily News.

Rash of car and  home burglaries leads to increased presence in southeast neighborhoods

"Officers hit the streets this week as home burglaries in this area continue to hover at 45 percent above last year’s pace that resulted in a five-year high of 732 annually, police said. “It’s a two-fold approach because we are also targeting thefts from vehicles,” Chief Richard Biehl said. “We are taking the crime trends in this area quite seriously and addressing them properly.” Car break-ins have soared 140 percent as thieves continue to target GPS units, other mobile electronics and money left in vehicles, police said. Many of the stolen GPS units that retail for $300 are being sold on the streets for rock bottom prices of $10 to $30, or being traded for drugs, police said."

New Book - Economic Misery and Crime Waves (released)

2009-08-03T20:53:00.004-04:00

For immediate release. Just out, the long awaited book published by Sikyur Publications, authored by Severin L. Sorensen, CPP, titled, Economic Misery and Crime Waves: the second great depression and coming crime wave, and what we can do about it. The publication is available online at Amazon.com and online bookstores for $17.95 in paperback; a hardcover library edition is forthcoming. To order the publication online at Amazon click through the following link:

http://www.amazon.com/Economic-Misery-Crime-Waves-depression/dp/1936072017/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF 8&qid=1249347067&sr=8-1

At a time when politicos would have the public believe that we are in the midst of an economic recovery our our deep recession, comes the telling tale of economic misery yet to be evidenced globally in this economic downturn. Make no mistake, we are not out of the woods in this economic recovery and joblessness will continue for many more seasons.

The book Economic Misery and Crime Waves will be useful to anyone wanting more information on the crimes waves of decades past including the Great Depression from 1929-42 and the deep economic recession of 1974, and other sharp economic contractions.

The author examines the past for clues on how to best address the coming crime wave, and provides guidance for goverments, businesses, communities, and families on how to prepare now to curb what shall surely be a blow to the economic recovery of nations if the conditions of economic misery are not abated soon.

New Book -- Economic Misery and Crime Waves, in press (again)

2009-07-11T15:08:00.005-04:00

This is an update for those following the release of my new book titled, Economic Misery and Crime Waves: the second Great Depression and coming crime wave, and what we can do about it.

The new book (cover shown) is at the printing press (again) and in pre-press for publication this summer. A formal press release will be issued when the book is out publicly; additionally, several venues for public release have been made including the following major event:

Announcing the public presentation on the topic of "Economic Misery and Crime Waves", by book author Severin L. Sorensen, CPP, who will present on the topic of "Economic Misery and Crime Waves: Preparations for the Coming Crime Wave," along with the public release of his new book, Economic Misery and Crime Waves: the second Great Depression and coming crime wave, and what we can do about it -- at the 55th Annual Seminar and Exhibits of ASIS International, Anaheim Convention Center, Anaheim, CA, September 21, 2009, from 11am to noon. Following the presentation the author will be available for questions and answer period, along with a book signing for the First Edition of Economic Misery and Crime Waves. Press inquiries can contact publications@sikyur.com.

New Research on Linkage of Economic Misery and Homicide

2009-07-11T14:58:00.002-04:00

Evidences of linkages of economic crises and crime will start springing forth as we head into the fall and winter season. The pressure cooker of increasing economic misery will push some over the edge. A new blog posted by Melissa Lafsky, headlines, some UK Oxford research of the following --

Economic Crises (Like This One) Lead to

Higher Murder & Suicide Rates

From Laftsky's blog, "Rises in unemployment similar to those in the current economic crisis increase homicide and suicide rates, according to researchers at the University of Oxford and the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine. In the upcoming edition of the Lancet, they published a paper titled “The Public Health Effect of Economic Crisis and Alternative Government Policy Responses in Europe: An Empirical Analysis.” Among their findings:"
"The authors looked at how economic changes have affected mortality rates in 26 European Union (EU) countries over the past three decades, and identified how governments might reduce adverse effects."
"They found that for every 1% increase in unemployment, there was a 0.8% rise in suicide rates at ages younger than 65 years—or between 60 and 550 extra suicides per year across the EU. Murder rates also rose 0.8%. Both these effects were greatest at working ages…If unemployment rose by more than 3%, suicide rates for those aged under 65 rose by 4.5%, and deaths from alcohol abuse by 28%."

http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/realitybase/2009/07/08/economic-crises-like-this-one-lead-to-higher-murder-suicide-rates/

Brits prepare to block and tackle recession crime wave

2009-05-13T16:27:00.003-04:00

With the headline, "Gordon Brown set to get tough on burglary," pledged action to prevent the recession leading to a crime wave. Crime waves have occurred within one-year of every sharp economic contraction since 1954, and the crime wave that occurred during the great depression was indeed most serious.

Importantly, like the leaders of the World Bank and IMF, the UK Prime Minister admitted that economic downturns can lead to increases in burglaries and robberies. The Mirror reported Brown as saying, "We face the challenge of preventing what happened in previous recessions, where crimes like burglary and robbery went up," he is expected to tell a conference in London.

Getting public awareness on crime prevention and attacking serious habitual offenders is important, along with a myriad of other strategies reported in a book to be released next week written by Severin L. Sorensen, CPP, titled, Economic Misery and Crime Waves: the second great depression and the coming crime wave, and what we can do about it.

What Prime Minister Brown is doing is necessary, but insufficient. What is needed is not just awareness of the crime wave coming, and blocking and tackling specific offenders, but also a focused strategy to hack at the roots of crime, not just block crime opportunity. Situational Crime Prevention will be an important aim in crime prevention, but so also will meaningful job creation in sustainable long-term (5-10 year) with investment related employment schemes such as national science policy goal initiatives -- the options are many running from increased productivity, infrastructure, energy efficiency, clean water, etc. Focusing on the clean energy of Nuclear power would accomplish this goal while being kind to the earth, as a nuclear energy program provides jobs from engineers, planners, scientists, on down to road works, construction, and laborers. Whereas road construction projects are more lumpy in terms of employing lower skilled workers, as opposed to a broad sweeping program of job support throughout the economy.

Bear Market Rally vs Crime Wave -- both are predictable

2009-05-12T23:26:00.005-04:00

The IMF and World Bank economists are raising the wall of worry of an international crime wave caused by economic misery.

Meanwhile, there are many prognosticators intent on cheerleading this economy to new heights -- telling us not to worry -- good times are right around the corner. What people should understand is that the market upticks are based on "technical" indicators born of "animal spirits" of speculators and day traders taking advantage of the diverse news, and not the making of a sustainable rally. We have yet to experience the full brunt of home foreclosures with many banks just now coming to the end of their suspensions of foreclosures in process. Consumer debt continues to challenge households with unemployed unable to service their debts -- and many with jobs overlevered with debt. We also have yet to experience the public view of the commercial real estate bubble burst that is exacerbated by the underlying value of the properties, loss of stable of rent-paying leasees, and competing market for captial property acquisition in the distressed assets -- all of these issues are serving to bring down commercial real estate.

Meanwhile individuals throughout the globe are facing increasingly fierce losses from crime. The World Bank has sounded the alarm about global conditions for crime rising, including other stability issues beyond crime looking at potential regime changes. At the street level, crime is increasing in pockets not unexpectedly at this time. Consider the headline from ASIS International's Security Management Online --

"Business Still Booming for One Industry: Shoplifting"
Washington Times (05/11/09) P. A1 ; Harper, Jennifer

Statistics released by several organizations show that shoplifting is on the rise across the country. According to the Retail Industry Leaders Association, 61 percent of the nation's largest retailers and chain stores have seen increases in "opportunistic" shoplifting over the past four months. Another 75 percent of retailers said they had experienced a significant increase in "organized retail crime," or large-scale shoplifting. In addition, the RILA found that no retailers had experienced declines in shoplifting. Meanwhile, the Tennessee Bureau of Investigations has reported that shoplifting has risen by 30 percent in the state, while Michigan authorities say shoplifting is up 27 percent in the Great Lakes area. The increase in shoplifting is troublesome because thefts of merchandise and the subsequent sale of these items can be used to fund more serious crimes. According to the RILA, assassination attempts on federal prosecutors and police in Texas were funded by the thefts of more than $1 million in baby formula by gangs. The problem has caught the attention of lawmakers in Washington, including Sen. Richard J. Durbin (D-Ill.) Durbin recently introduced the Combating Organized Retail Crime Act of 2009, which aims to fight shoplifting. A number of states have also taken action by increasing funding for law enforcement and by making shoplifting a Class 4 felony instead of a misdemeanor.
(go to web site)

There are signs (green shoots) that are indeed surfacing providing hope to many that a recovery is around the corner. These green shoots are being encouraged to grow by spotlighting and shouting encouragement by prognositicators that are cheerleading the bear market rally. Yet the underlying fundamentals of the economy are not sound, unemployment continues to rise, though the pace of unemployment increases seems to be tappering around 500k jobs per month. The continued decay of employment markets will adversely impact many individuals who can no longer service their debts. You will know when the crime wave is recognized with the prognosticators use their pulpits to tell us all to obey laws, be civil to each other, use good protection plans for safeguarding families, homes, and businesses. Crime prevention rallies have occured internationally and are starting to occur in small pockets within the US.

There is a relationship between economic misery and crime and the more misery we experience, the more crime we should anticipate. This is the premise of a new book currently at the printer that will be available soon. For those with ears to hear, use this economic epoch of rising optimism to reposition your assets and move your ground. We are in the middle of a 8-12 year event and the sunshine of springtime will fade in the heat of summer when either know risks, or unknown exogenous varibables may throw us back into a tailspin of worry as we retest the economic bottom experienced in the market.

Economic Misery increasing -- unemployment rising still

2009-04-18T21:03:00.004-04:00

In March 2009,

US Unemployment (U-3)

 rose to 8.5 percent;

the broader measure

of Unemployment and

underemployment

(U-6) rose to 15.6%.

From the US Bureau of Labor

a, "Regional and state unemployment

rates were nearly all higher in

March.

# # #

Forty-six states recorded over-the-month unemployment rate

increases, North Dakota and the District of Columbia registered rate decreases, and 3 states had no change in their rate, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today.   Over the year, jobless rates were up in all 50 states and the  District of Columbia. The national unemployment rate rose from 8.1  percent in February to 8.5 percent in March, which was 3.4 percent- age points higher than in March 2008."

Meanwhile, in California -- the worlds 5th largest economy -- the headline reads, State unemployment rate highest since 1941 the San Francicso Chronicle reported 4/17/09 that "The state unemployment rate soared to 11.2 percent in March, the highest since before World War II, leaving a record 2.1 million Californians out of work, according to a report issued Friday. Employment Development Department spokeswoman Patti Roberts said the March figure surpasses the 11 percent rate that occurred during the 1980s recession and brings California close to the jobless level of January 1941, when unemployment stood at about 11.7 percent. Roberts said unemployment is estimated to have been as high as 25 percent during the Great Depression. The highest reliable figure in state archives is the 14.7 percent rate in October 1940. The U.S. unemployment rate for March stood at 8.5 percent."

# # #

The Bureau of Labor Statistics Unemployment Data are as follows (for March 2009)

Table A.  States with unemployment rates significantly differ- ent from that of the U.S., March 2009, seasonally adjusted --------------------------------------------------------------                 State                |          Rate(p) -------------------------------------------------------------- United States (1) ...................|           8.5                                      | Arkansas ............................|           6.5 California ..........................|          11.2 Colorado ............................|           7.5 Connecticut .........................|           7.5 Delaware ............................|           7.7 District of Columbia ................|           9.8 Florida .............................|           9.7 Hawaii ..............................|           7.1 Idaho ...............................|           7.0 Indiana .............................|          10.0                                      | Iowa ................................|           5.2 Kansas ..............................|           6.1 Kentucky ............................|           9.8 Louisiana ...........................|           5.8 Maryland ............................|           6.9 Michigan ............................|          12.6 Montana .............................|           6.1 Nebraska ............................|           4.6 Nevada ..............................|          10.4 New Hampshire .......................|           6.2                                      | New Mexico ..........................|           5.9 New York ............................|           7.8 North Carolina ......................|          10.8 North Dakota ........................|           4.2 Ohio ................................|           9.7 Oklahoma ............................|           5.9 Oregon ..............................|          12.1 Pennsylvania ........................|           7.8 Rhode Island ........................|          10.5 South Carolina ......................|          11.4                                      | South Dakota ........................|           4.9 Tennessee ...........................|           9.6 Texas ...............................|           6.7 Utah ................................|           5.2 Vermont .............................|           7.2 Virginia ............................|           6.8 West Virginia .......................|           6.9 Wyoming .............................|           4.5 --------------------------------------------------------------    1 Data are not preliminary.    p = preliminary.

The more important data remains with U-6 Unemployment as shown below. U-6 (Unemployment and under employment rate is now 15.6% through March 2009).

Data extracted on: April 18, 2009 (9:17:24 PM)
Labor Force Statistics from the Current Population Survey

Series Id:           LNS13327709
Seasonal Adjusted
Series title:        (seas) Total unemployed, plus all marginally attached workers plus total
                     employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of all civilian labor
                     force plus all marginally attached workers
Labor force status:  Aggregated totals unemployed
Type of data:        Percent
Age:                 16 years and over
Percent/rates:       Unemployed and mrg attached and pt for econ reas as percent of labor force plus
                     marg attached
Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Annual
1999 7.7 7.7 7.6 7.6 7.4 7.5 7.5 7.3 7.4 7.2 7.1 7.1  
2000 7.1 7.2 7.1 6.9 7.1 7.0 7.0 7.1 7.0 6.8 7.1 6.9  
2001 7.3 7.4 7.3 7.4 7.5 7.9 7.8 8.1 8.7 9.3 9.4 9.6  
2002 9.5 9.5 9.4 9.7 9.5 9.5 9.6 9.6 9.6 9.6 9.7 9.8  
2003 10.0 10.2 10.0 10.2 10.1 10.3 10.3 10.1 10.4 10.2 10.0 9.8  
2004 9.9 9.7 10.0 9.6 9.6 9.5 9.5 9.4 9.4 9.7 9.4 9.2  
2005 9.3 9.3 9.2 9.0 8.9 9.0 8.8 8.9 9.0 8.7 8.7 8.5  
2006 8.4 8.5 8.2 8.1 8.2 8.4 8.5 8.4 8.0 8.2 8.0 7.9  
2007 8.3 8.1 8.0 8.2 8.3 8.3 8.3 8.5 8.4 8.5 8.4 8.7  
2008 9.0 9.0 9.1 9.2 9.8 10.1 10.4 10.9 11.2 12.0 12.6 13.5  
2009 13.9 14.8 15.6

Series Id: LNS13327709 Seasonal Adjusted Series title: (seas) Total unemployed, plus all marginally attached workers plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of all civilian labor force plus all marginally attached workers Labor force status: Aggregated totals unemployed Type of data: Percent Age: 16 years and over Percent/rates: Unemployed and mrg attached and pt for econ reas as percent of labor force plus marg attached
Year	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Annual
1999	7.7	7.7	7.6	7.6	7.4	7.5	7.5	7.3	7.4	7.2	7.1	7.1
2000	7.1	7.2	7.1	6.9	7.1	7.0	7.0	7.1	7.0	6.8	7.1	6.9
2001	7.3	7.4	7.3	7.4	7.5	7.9	7.8	8.1	8.7	9.3	9.4	9.6
2002	9.5	9.5	9.4	9.7	9.5	9.5	9.6	9.6	9.6	9.6	9.7	9.8
2003	10.0	10.2	10.0	10.2	10.1	10.3	10.3	10.1	10.4	10.2	10.0	9.8
2004	9.9	9.7	10.0	9.6	9.6	9.5	9.5	9.4	9.4	9.7	9.4	9.2
2005	9.3	9.3	9.2	9.0	8.9	9.0	8.8	8.9	9.0	8.7	8.7	8.5
2006	8.4	8.5	8.2	8.1	8.2	8.4	8.5	8.4	8.0	8.2	8.0	7.9
2007	8.3	8.1	8.0	8.2	8.3	8.3	8.3	8.5	8.4	8.5	8.4	8.7
2008	9.0	9.0	9.1	9.2	9.8	10.1	10.4	10.9	11.2	12.0	12.6	13.5
2009	13.9	14.8	15.6

UN Council Meets on Global Crime Wave

2009-04-18T20:47:00.003-04:00

UN crime control authorities report global crime wave. From April 16-24, 2009, in Vienna, The United Nations Commission on Crime Prevention and Criminal Justice (CCPCJ) will convene its 18th session; multiple topics are planned, but the theme running through the topics is discussion of the current international crime situation labled "a global crime wave" by Antonio Maria Costa, Executive Director of the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC) .

In his openning remarks, Costa said "crime has gone global," representing proliferation of organized crime. Costa warned that "Organized crime poses a threat to the security of cities, states, and even entire regions." One news report from the meeting quoted Costa as saying "the drug cartels spread violence in Central America, Mexico and the Caribbean, while the collusion between insurgents and criminal groups threatens the stability of West Asia. There were also such criminal activities as the smuggling of weapons, plundering of resources, kidnapping as well as human trafficking in many parts of the world." Gang violence in some cities remains a problem. These traditional crimes are increasing, however new technology crimes such as cyber-crime and economic fraud are threatening many nations. Costa predicted that the economic crisis would deteriorate this current situation into a global crime wave.

The meeting agenda for appears at this link. http://daccessdds.un.org/doc/UNDOC/GEN/V09/806/34/PDF/V0980634.pdf?OpenElement

Current Events - Musings on Crime Waves Brewing

2009-04-07T02:34:00.004-04:00

Evidences of increasing economic misery and climate for crime waves.

Americans Feel 15.6% Unemployment as Underemployment Surges

Bloomberg.com reported that workers are feeling real pain from the recession that began in December 2007; they’re not represented in the U-3, 8.5 percent unemployment rate the Labor Department reported last week. Underreported unemployed workers are part of a broader group called U-6 that includes those who want a job but have stopped looking for work and those who want full-time positions but have to settle for part-time employment. A measure of underemployment that counts those people has almost doubled over the past two years, to 15.6 percent, providing a more complete gauge of the labor market’s deterioration. Along with an historic drop in the percentage of the population who are working, and record numbers of long-term unemployed, the figures point to a permanent shift in employment patterns, said former U.S. Labor Secretary Robert Reich.

Kidnappings -- "Bossnappings" -- French Factory Workers hold Caterpillar Executives Hostage -- From the Herald Sun (Au), Employees at Caterpillar's factory in the southeastern city of Grenoble barricaded bosses inside an office yesterday after talks on a compensation deal for 733 workers facing redundancy broke down. Earlier, French President Nicolas Sarkozy said he would meet the workers to discuss their demands. "Caterpillar is a firm that makes earthmoving equipment and which works mainly in the United States. The collapse in demand has been 80 per cent," Mr Sarkozy said, in an interview with Europe 1. "I will save the site. I will meet the union leaders since, if I understand right, they called for my help and I understand this. I won't let them down." It was not immediately clear what Mr Sarkozy's promise amounted to: The "site" as such is not under threat, but 733 of the firm's 2800 jobs at two plants in Grenoble are due to be cut. Nevertheless, Mr Sarkozy's failure to criticise the workers for denying the bosses their freedom of movement could give encouragement to the organisers of increasingly militant protests across the country. The action was the latest in a spate of so-called "bossnappings" in France as anger mounts over the global economic crisis, and the President and his ministers have taken a careful approach to the protests. More on this topic; http://news.google.com/news?pz=1&ned=us&hl=en&q=bossnappings

Fraud -- scams surrounding foreclosure assistance -- Scams target homeowners seeking foreclosure rescue, MiamiHerald.com, South Florida is teeming with companies promising to help modify loans for borrowers facing foreclosure. The article states, "In loan modification scams, companies typically charge homeowners thousands of dollars in upfront fees to modify a loan, then make off with the money without providing aid. In other schemes, so-called investors convince borrowers to transfer title of their homes to themselves or a third party only to evict them later and sell the property. To lure customers, scammers often use company names that resemble legitimate nonprofits or government agencies consumers have heard about in television and radio advertisements, the Federal Trade Commission said." More on this topic; http://news.google.com/news?pz=1&ned=us&hl=en&q=home+lending+refinance+fraud

"Amid Recession, FBI Makes New Push on Financial Crimes", U.S. News & World Report (04/01/09) ; Kingsbury, Alex

From the ASIS Daily Feed - "As financial crimes such as Bernie Madoff's massive Ponzi scheme continue to grab headlines, the FBI is increasingly shifting its focus away from terrorism and towards fighting white-collar crime. Over the past five weeks, the FBI has opened more than 200 mortgage-fraud cases and 36 corporate-fraud investigations. Both numbers are expected to continue to grow rapidly in the near future, top FBI officials say. In another sign that white-collar crime has become a bigger priority at the FBI, the number of agents dealing with fraud has risen from 75 in October to more than 250 now. But despite the shift in focus at the FBI, justice for those involved in white-collar crimes may be slow in coming, since the crimes generate large amounts of paper and electronic records and can take years to investigate and prosecute." More on this topic; http://news.google.com/news?pz=1&ned=us&hl=en&q=financial+crimes+investigation

"Insider Fraud Swells as Banks Suffer".
Bank Technology News (04/09) ; Sausner, Rebecca

Another from the ASIS Daily Feed - Fraud is occurring more frequently as both crooks and employees seek ways to capitalize on vulnerabilities amidst economic uncertainty. Many risk teams are now trying to contain fraud at a moment when they are especially vulnerable. Bank of America's risk team received its wake-up call in March when one of its bankers was found participating in "rogue trading" activities that cost the company $120 million, while Actimize, a third-party risk mitigation vendor, discovered at one firm 19 employees who had pilfered money shortly before the fraud detection system was activated. These incidents affect corporate bottom lines, so security vendors are not surprised at the business they are getting even as many industries slow down. In fact, most major companies have increased their spending to purchase more comprehensive detection platforms, says Jaidev Iyer, a managing director with the Global Association of Risk Professionals. More on this story: Insider fraud spikes as cyber espionage spreads, http://www.computerweekly.com/blogs/editors-blog/2009/04/insider-fraud-spikes-as-cyber.html

Unemployment climbs, no signs of leveling off yet

2009-03-20T23:17:00.006-04:00

Unemployment continues to rise. From the Bureau of Labor Statistics, comes this news, "In February [2009], employers took 2,769 mass layoff actions involving 295,477 workers. Mass layoff events increased by 542 from January, and initial claims increased by 57,575. Layoff events for all industries and for the manufacturing sector rose to their highest levels on record. Thirty states reached program highs in average weekly initial claims."

Bloomberg News reported that "the national jobless rate rose to 8.1 last month, the highest in more than a quarter century, and the economy has lost 4.4 million jobs since the recession began in December 2007." Chairman Bernake said on 3/10/09, that it was “certainly within the realm of possibility” that average unemployment nationwide could rise above 10 percent and stay there for a period of time, reported, Bloomberg.

Source: Bloomberg.com

The Index measures the US unemployment rate on a monthly basis on an seasonally adjusted level. The unemployment rate represents the number unemployed persons as a percent of the labor force. Each month approximately 60,000 sample households are interviewed (a portion is done via telephone) during the week that includes the 12th of the month. Not Seasonally adjusted.

Regional unemployment is climbing in certain areas that include California. Bloomberg reported today, "California’s jobless rate surged in February to the highest level since 1983 while unemployment in Oregon and Nevada climbed above 10 percent for the first time in more than two decades. Unemployment in California rose to 10.5 percent from 10.1 percent in January, its Employment Development Department reported today in Sacramento. Neighboring Oregon’s jobless rate rose a full percentage point to 10.8 percent, and Nevada’s increased to 10.1 percent."

Economic misery in Argentina leads to Crime Wave, 10,000 Protest March, another 100,000 people support the march

2009-03-19T12:14:00.009-04:00

It has started. Mark the date. March 19, 2009 marked the public acknowledgement of an international crime wave that started gradually, and now suddenly in global pockets of economic misery.

Today, crime is being experienced and reported with increasing frequency throughout the globe. A recent survey of US major city police chiefs cited increased concern for crime and crime opportunity, just at a time when budgets are being reduced and crime opportunity is increasing. Within the posts of this blog the author has reported increasing crime evidences from reported observations of localized crime waves in Argentina, Australia, Russia, Israel, Mexico, off-the-Somalia coast, UK, and the USA, and most ferociously in the developing countries. Public officials will urge caution in declaring any definitive time or existance of a crime wave, however it is being felt and experienced by many around the globe.

What then is a crime wave? The Oxford Pocket Dictionary of Current English describes a crime wave as: Crime wave, • noun, a sudden increase in the number of crimes committed in a country or area. Mark Fishman (1978) had a more meaningful definition -- “When we speak of a crime wave, we are talking about a kind of social awareness of crime, crime brought to public attention.”[i] This attenion may surface as a result of a catastrophic criminal event such as a particularly violent crime or spree of crimes, repeated hashing or rehashing of crime data, a particular news story of crime news or events, or some other shady calculation or notion brought to public attention. The data may show a peak to trough pattern of crime, but public perceptions and fear of crime is a greater barometer of crime waves in terms of public thinking."

Graciela Lopez takes part in the march on Wednesday. Her 16-year-old son was killed by a drunk driver in 2007. (CNN Photo)

Reported this morning on CNN was an alarming story of public marches, exceeding 10,000 participants, marching in Argentina against a crime wave felt by the public. Brian Brynes, CNN reporter, wrote, "BUENOS AIRES, Argentina (CNN) -- An estimated 10,000 Argentines marched on the historic Plaza de Mayo in the capital, Buenos Aires, on Wednesday to demand more anti-crime measures, reflecting a top priority among Argentines, according to recent polls. There were other anti-crime marches throughout Argentina on Wednesday night, as well. At least three police officers have been killed in Buenos Aires in recent weeks, and other high-profile crimes have grabbed the nation's attention. An employee of Argentina's most famous TV talk-show host, Susana Gimenez, was killed last month. That prompted Gimenez to call for the return of the death penalty. The death penalty was outlawed in Argentina in 1984, a year after the country's military ended its seven-year dictatorship, during which some 30,000 people were killed." Read the entire article on CNN. See all stories on this topic

The CNN article goes on to report that "Organizers used the Internet to mobilize people, setting up a Web page asking Congress to declare a national security emergency, and creating a Facebook page for the march. More than 106,000 people signed up as "friends." Those gathered in the Plaza de Mayo -- many carrying photos of their dead loved ones -- asked their leaders to act against rising crime." The internet will bring the immediacy of messages to many people exponentially quicker than the great depression when there was no email, no fax, no CNN.

It is time for the UN to call together the world's leaders, economists, criminologists, sociologists, and planners and prepare now for what shall surely be a scourge for the unprepared.

Preparation has its own Hawthorne effect, when you prepare, you change the outcome. Let's not wait for the social science empiricists to measure definitively that we are experiencing a crime wave (such as the wait economists make in declaring a recession waiting for 2-quarters to occur 'while Britian burns') before we address the increasing negative consequences of a crime wave, that is exacerbated by the economic condition.

When the patient is in the emergency operating room, it is not the time to suggest -- shall we give him placebo (a fake defibulizer) or the procedure we expect to most likely save the patient's life? Much is known about crime already, especially about what works, and what does not work, and we do not have the luxury of time to conduct new double blind studies of interventions in the brewing sea-storm where some people get real aid and others get placebo. In the words of Emerson, if you see that somebody has no shoes, you know the appropriate gift is shoes, and not some other form of aid.

We are human beings, we are not rats or mice, and in our dire economic condition we must experiment on the run as we are facing a rapidly brewing cocktail of economic misery that will exacerbate crime conditions and crime opportunity itself. We need to combat the conditions of crime opportunity with tactics that meet crime opportunity whereever, whenever, using manuver warfare style mobility.

If we are prepared, there is no need to fear.

It is time for action. We need local, regional, national, and international crime control strategies that are equal to the emerging challenges of our age. We are experiencing a 100-year event, and our institutions were designed to handle the 20-year cycle events; we are unprepared. It is time to get moving to make preparations for crime control and social controls to keep the majority of population from becoming civil disobedient in the face of economic challenges, as eating food becomes prima facie more important than the fact that the apples I am eating are on my neighbors property. The rationalization for crime starts small, and if not abated, may increase and some may not return to their law-abiding ways.

There can be nothing more important on the world agenda than getting the economy back on the train tracks again, creating sustainable jobs, bolstering economic growth, and combating economic misery that may lead to increased crime if not abated. All other talk of combatting global warming, solving all other manner of worlds problems must be secondary, for if the driver of the economic engine dies, there will be no resources for all other items.

[i] Mark Fishman, “Crime Waves as Ideology,” Social Problems, Vol 25, no.5, June 1978.

Why did crime decrease from 1934 onwards during the Great Depression?

2009-03-19T03:05:00.009-04:00

There is a great myth held by criminal justice scholars supported by reported criminal justice statistics that crime went down during the Great Depression. The data clearly show that the crime wave of the Great Depression peaked in 1933, and went down thereafter in 1934 and the succeeding years until the end of the Depression.

So you have to ask yourself this question – did crime truly go down during the Great Depression, or was something else going on? Why was there such a sharp drop in crime in 1934 and thereafter? What was going on?

In a new book to be released in April 2009, Economic Misery and Crime Waves: the future history of the second great depression and the crime wave that followed, and what to do about it, this author suggests that reported crime during the Great Depression indeed went down from 1934 onwards, but not because there was necessarily less crime, but rather that the nature of crime statistics collection, reporting, and laws changed; furthermore, the emphasis was switched to going after the serious habitual offender (or SHOs), de-emphasis on minor crimes not arresting for minor property destruction, rail car break-ins, trespass, food thefts; and not unimportanly, a the creation of a huge crime demand reduction programs impacting those at greatest risk for crime opportunity -- young, unemployed males from the inner cities. These facts are largely ignored by criminal justice academicians that take the reported data at face value.

From an empirical standpoint, the dramatic reduction in crime figures post-1934 during the later half of the Great Depression can be explained by any one or combination of the following measures that have nothing to do with the real level of crime:

(1) decriminalizing crimes that were formerly illegal, as in repealing Prohibition and the attendant crimes that accompanied bootlegging and rum-running operations would have the natural effect of reducing the number of reported crimes, without changing the behavior of organized crime or cause them to turn from their vice practices; with the change in Prohibition, the authorities released some prohibition-law offenders from prison, reducing the financial cost of crime control.

(2) re-focusing law enforcement efforts tightly on the objective of incapacitating the most serious habitual offenders such as desperados, and de-emphasizing and underreporting crimes of opportunity would cause a reduction in reported crimes; merely by stop counting petty crimes and civil disobedience, such as breaking into railroad box cars, stealing food etc, would by the nature of law enforcement focus and attention, reduce the level of reported crime without impacting the underlying conditions with the exception that an incapacitated habitual offender would be one-less habitual offender;

(3) President Roosevelt implemented within three-weeks of taking office a massive crime opportunity reduction program that de facto served to extract 25% of the likely offender population of unemployed, at risk males from the high-density city centers, and relocated them to rural military managed work camps called the Civilian Conservation Corps (CCC). On March 23, 1933, Roosevelt created the CCC that at its peak (in 1935) extracted 500,000 unemployed young men at risk for crime involvement living in the inner cities and took them to the isolated rural areas of our national forests and parks to live and work in camps effectively getting them out of the cities reducing the likely number of offenders where the crime data were reported. Over 2.2 million young men worked in the CCC during the Great Depression reflecting incapacitation of between 25%-33% of our nation’s poor men. the locations of the encampments were so rural and transportation inadequate, that few workers ventured away from the camps on weekends, nor were they within close enough proximity to reach the cities where they had been extracted from. Whether by court ordered placement in the CCC as a diversionary program, or by volunteer sign-up, the reduction in the number of likely offender at risk young male population would serve to reduce crime in specific places.

This author agrees that as the conditions of economic misery were improved, and misery lessened, that crime did decrease, but proximate cause of the decease in reported crime was the de jure government intervention to reclassify crime (making former crimes legal), narrow the focus of crime control, and remove a large cohort of at risk likely offenders from the densely populated inner cities.

So one must ask therefore, What was it that was happening so significantly in the country between 1929 and 1933 that caused President Franklin Roosevelt to start the CCC within three weeks of his inauguration? An economic misery based crime wave that is largely ignored by criminologists and criminal justice scholars today who site only the statistics of cities that crime went down following the implementation of the above measures through the end of the great depression; this author is therefore not surprised that the great cohort of nearly 25% of the cohort of young male unemployed likely criminal offenders were extracted from our city streets and sent to the rural areas and reported crime in the cities decreased.

Think that such bold action in criminal justice thinking might happen again? The rumblings of similar policy approaches are being paraded today. There is a growing cry for decriminalizing laws (such as marijuana illegality and taxing it as a controlled substance), reducing the severity of sentencing (as is being done presently by several states (read article), and preparing a huge jobs program to remove the large at risk likely offender population from the inner cities should be in the offing.

The great challenge however with this last program was that the CCC relocated workers to the rural state and national parks throughout the US where they were too far removed to return to the cities on weekends, thereby ensuring reduced crime in the cities. To do the same thing today and have similar impact -- President Obama would need to implement a new International Peace Corps or Environmental Corps initiative, sending young unemployed people from the 'at risk population' for being likely offenders, and send them to 3rd world countries where they would learn new careers in applied developmental economics, building wells, clean water, farms, and micro finance, in underdeveloped nations. Otherwise, the mobility of the generation may merely displace crime in one inner city location to another location nearest the work programs.

It is important to remember, the past is the past, but the history is what is written. Does calling a cat a dog, transform the cat into a dog? Or did someone just lower the bar of expectation and declare victory? You decide. We will have our own opportunity to live through these same experiences in our own modern experiment living through this deep recession, that when the history books are written, will call it the second great depression.

It is time now for government leaders to move beyond the economic necessity of capital preservation and credit availability; it is time to think about the consequences of the sharp economic crises and prepare our people for this change. Whether performed silently behind closed doors and away from the cameras, or publicly addressing the issues, crime is increasing, the nation’s police chiefs see it, the public senses it and are purchasing firearms for their own protection at increasing rates. We are indeed moving into a paradigm change. We need to a crime control master plan to address our protracted condition.

The future is not so dark when you accept it, and move on to prepare for it. But not addressing the needs that are building is to worsen the human condition, not better it, and bettering the human condition should be the aim of this government at this time.

Interconnectedness and the 2nd Shock Wave

2009-03-19T02:51:00.004-04:00

A salient and dark article on the 3rd world impact of the current financial market contagion was posted today by Michael Klare, on March 18, 2009, in a blog titled, appearing in Foreign Policy In Focus, titled, The Second Shockwave. Klare writes, "While the economic contraction is apparently slowing in the advanced industrial countries and may reach bottom in the not-too-distant future, it's only beginning to gain momentum in the developing world, which was spared the earliest effects of the global meltdown. Because the crisis was largely precipitated by a collapse of the housing market in the United States and the resulting disintegration of financial products derived from the "securitization" of questionable mortgages, most developing nations were unaffected by the early stages of the meltdown, for the simple reason that they possessed few such assets. But now, as the wealthier nations cease investing in the developing world or acquiring its exports, the crisis is hitting them with a vengeance. On top of this, conditions are deteriorating at a time when severe drought is affecting many key food-producing regions and poor farmers lack the wherewithal to buy seeds, fertilizers, and fuel. The likely result: A looming food crisis in many areas hit hardest by the global economic meltdown."

This same theme was also vocalized by the heads of the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund within the past three months. We are interconnected. The huge contraction in spending and demand in developed nations may have severe impact and result in political upheaval in 3rd world countries. And if conditions worsen signficantly in the developed world, nation-states may fratricide into smaller states as disunion and disproportionate pain-sharing may cause some to leave their peers. Coalitions formed in times of peace and plenty may not last the famine of releief and developed nation spending.

Budget Cuts Leave Many Large Corporations Less Protected

2009-03-04T16:18:00.004-05:00

Research shows that crime waves occur within one-year of sharp economic contractions since 1954, and our current sharp contraction is sharper, deeper, and more dark than any on record in the post-war era. Therefore, it should come as some concern that with a crime wave building on the horizon, and some six months to go before crime is noticable and the public sees and feels a crime wave, that corporations are cutting costs now; this may be shortsighted.

If reductions in security force are from reductions in enterprise operation (closed stores and factories), then there is likely little negative consequence from the security manpower reductions after the vacant sites are secured. However, if the security force reductions are coming in the face of continued enterprise operations, then by definition more crime opportunity is created by this reduction in force if no other means are used to mitigate the reduction-in service.

Research tells us that crime occurs where there is:

(1) an absense of a capable guardian -- like a guard, security manager, other focused eyes,

(2) likely crime targets

(3) likely offenders -- increasing numbers of those fearful of being let go from their position, and those already unemployed, under-employed, and those unemployed and not looking for work are growing in mass.

(4) absense of intimate handling of known offenders and habitual offenders -- the guards know who they are, but without them, who is left to manage the known likely offenders?

A recent survey of Chief Security Officers (CSOs) from the largest corporations showed that 64% of CSOs indicated that the economy was negatively impacting their companies; 35% said they are reducing their departmental security budgets, and nearly 60% said that they either had already, or were nearing a position of having to implement a security department hiring freeze.

Joan Goodchild, Senior Editor, of CSO Online, wrote on 2/25/09, "Current economic conditions are having a negative impact on the majority of security budgets, according to a survey conducted by CSO. Many respondents indicated hiring freezes or staff reductions were necessary due to the financial crisis. Security budgets will decrease for 35 percent of respondents and remain the same for 42 percent. Just 23 percent thought spending would increase in the coming year. " Read the entire article at: http://www.csoonline.com/article/482186/CSO_Survey_Economy_Forces_Many_to_Slash_Freeze_Security_Staff?page=1

May I be wrong, and you be right, that there is no crime wave coming. The door to crime is being left open just at a time of increased crime opportunity. Don't fear, be prepared.

Vigilantism -- The Unintended Consequence of Government Inability to Control Law and Order

2009-02-27T12:22:00.004-05:00

Wiki defines a vigilante as "a person who violates the law in order to exact what they believe to be justice from criminals, because they think that the criminal will not be caught or will not be sufficiently punished by the legal system." When social control systems fail to function, or become overrun, it is possible that vigilantees will fill the gap. With the environment for crime opportunity rising, at the same time the funding for law enforcement and security decreasing -- the unintended consequence of inaction may be vigilantee action. Think this is far fetched? Why are the gun manufactuer stocks on fire and rising rapidly in value? Why does it symbolically appear that guns are being purchased today nearly as much as gold coins? To protect the gold, perhaps? To protect the gun owner, absolutely. The trouble is that without adequate training in firearm safety and use, a gun in an untrained hand may be more dangerous than no gun, particularly if the gun is taken away from the gun-owner by a more experienced criminal offender. Nonetheless, people are protecting themselves for their own purposes yet to be explained.

In Mexico, vigilantees along the US/Mexican border are putting up their own fight for normalcy, law and order. Under the headline, "As Crime Mounts, Mexicans Turn to Vigilante Justice" Time Magazine reports that with the "conviction rate in the thousands of murders and kidnappings afflicting the nation every year [it] is estimated to be as low as 5%. Women and children are also increasingly among those killed by criminal gangs. And the limits on the legal system's ability to stem the tide of violent crime has produced a growing, shadowy movement for vigilante justice. In recent months, at least three new clandestine groups have promised to hunt down and murder criminals to help restore order. As in the killing of the alleged thief by Flores, such groups have been cheered on in public forums. "My sincerest congratulations to these brave men with their courage and determination," wrote a reader of Mexican newspaper Milenio. "God help them with their noble cause." Read the entire article at:
http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,1880450,00.html

Economic Misery and Crime Waves

Criminals stealing copper power lines, garden ornaments, and memorial plaques.

Social Misery Rising - Riots and Crime Wave in the UK

The full extent of the crimewave which affected London during this month’s riots has been revealed by the Metropolitan Police, with more than 3,000 individual crimes recorded over four days.

London riots, rural theft, and insurance co reported 20% increase in crime reports

Law enforcement and manufacturers are fighting back copper theives with technology

Crime wave watch -- small towns reducing police staff suffer crime increases

In UK, Crime falls for fourth year in a row; budget cuts will test limits of policing

In Egypt, following outser of Mubarak, police withdraw, a crime wave develops

Crime Wave Continues in Puerto Rico -- Homicide up!

UK Trains delayed as theives steal copper wires from junction boxes

Copper thieves delay trains

Internet Crime Hits Record High in First Half in Japan; up 31.5%.

Romania prepares for crime wave with exodus

Stolen Copper Salavge Market Booming in Economic Downturn

46 US States in Budget Deficits; forbodes more headwind to economic recovery

Recession Continues to Batter State Budgets; State Responses Could Slow Recovery

By Elizabeth McNichol, Phil Oliffand Nicholas Johnson

Robotics foretasted to be accomplices of criminals of the future

Mexican drug cartel infighting rivals 1930s gangland mob turf battles

CNBC Special Report - Counterfeit Goods Underworld

Crime wave alert - Boston sees sharp spike in crimes in tourist areas

Crime wave alert -- Scotland Yard Reports Broken Britain is in grip of £40bn organised crime...

A global double dip is unavoidable

"Grandad Bandit" sought in 23 bank robberies

Where is the crime wave? A critical analysis of the FBI Crime Report Data Released Today

FBI Preliminary Crime Reports Show 5.5% Decrease in violent crime; 4.9% Decrease in Property Crime

Press Release

Rural crime reports rising - missing sheep, bees, fuel, and machines

Christmas trees being stolen in credit crunch

Rural Britain bears brunt of recession crime wave

Half of Paris rental bikes stolen

Oyster rustling hits French farmers

Farmer's wife died of heart attack after thief stole diesel from family farm

Is this news?: Man with drug addiction robs to obtain cash

Drugs blamed for wave of crime

Crime Spree in Fayettte

Detroit Mayor Perplexed by Crime Wave; Need Suggestions?

Used Car Auto Sales Fraud Proliferates -- the phantom escrow scam

Credit Card Fraud Escalates -- 40% increase in UK

Metal thefts rise in amount and sophistication

Major Jewelers Hit by Crime Wave

Crime Wave Alert - Atlanta GA - Campus Concerns

Crime Wave Alert - Chicago violent crime on the rise, appeals for national guard to assist

Crime Wave Alert - Honduras - civil unrest, massive peasant squatters movement

Crime wave in New Haven: murder on the rise

Crime Wave Alert - Bahamas

Coming & Going: Violent crime is up in the Bahamas

Middle Class Customers increasing Shoplifting Behaviors

Middle-class turning to shoplifting

Affluent shoppers hit by the recession are fuelling a shoplifting crimewave, according to research.

12-year old Juvenile One-Man Crime Wave! (UK)

12-year-old 'crimewave' boy jailed

A violent 12-year-old car thief has become one of the country’s youngest prisoners after a string of more than 30 offences.

Crime opportunity and Craigslist; a match making domain

Latest Craigslist Washington post and Craigslist crime wave mirrors N.C.'s past

Crime Wave Alert - California

Loomis Neighborhood Rocked By Crime Wave

More Local News

Not everyone believes a crime wave is coming; certainly not the FBI or selective police chiefs

Crime Wave Alert - India

Crime Wave Alert - Europe - Gypsie Children pulled into Fagan like crime rings

Gypsy child crime wave grips Europe

Lucrative

Crime Wave Alert - Uganda

Crime wave alert - Nigeria

Crime Wave Alert - USA

Niagara crime wave alert!

RILA Reports Increasing Organized Retail Crime

7000+ protest crime wave in Mexico

The Face of Crime in Dayton -- Organized Crime Rings Taken Down

4 major crime rings dismantled, authorities say

Suburban drug/theft

Pharmacy robberies

Home invasions

Crime wave spurs patrols by Dayton police

Rash of car and home burglaries leads to increased presence in southeast neighborhoods

New Book - Economic Misery and Crime Waves (released)

New Book -- Economic Misery and Crime Waves, in press (again)

New Research on Linkage of Economic Misery and Homicide

Rash of car and  home burglaries leads to increased presence in southeast neighborhoods